Monthly Archives: September 2011

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Corruption, Egypt, Gulf states, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Arab Absolute Monarchs Funding Democracy in Egypt? Democratic People’s Republic of (Saudi) Arabia………

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“A mini-crisis of sorts erupted between Egypt and the United States over foreign funding. The spark was probably the congressional testimony of the new US ambassador to Cairo, Anne Patterson, in June, in which she said that the US was earmarking $40m for USAID democracy and governance spending…………..Fast forward to this month, and the question of foreign funding is changing tack. A few days ago, the Egyptian press revealed (from government sources) that several of the largest transactions to civil society organizations have come from the Gulf, not the West. The numbers are quite telling. According to these reports, over LE181m ($30m) was given to the Ansar al-Sunna association, a very conservative religious group, by Qatar’s al-Thani Foundation. Kuwaiti and Emirati religious associations also donated significant sums, ones that dward(sic) what secular human rights groups might be receiving at the moment…….…”

Last time I looked, neither the al-Thani nor the al-Nahayan were on the verge of changing their own quasi-feudal fiefdoms (Qatar and the UAE) into model democracies. Anymore than than al-Saud are about to declare a Democratic People’s Republic of (Saudi) Arabia. I mean these are the same people who tried to keep Mubarak in power, they even got pissed off at Obama for not ‘somehow’ keeping him in power (Qatar excepted in this case). Last time I looked, they were all clinging to power and inherited privilege at all costs, and I mean ALL costs. Now their Salafi allies are trying to influence the elections in Egypt, nay trying to buy the elections in Egypt.

(Come to think of it, how about a Great Jamihiriya Socialist “Emirates” Republic of Al-Nahayan?)
Cheers
mhg


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Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda, Middle East Nuclear, nuclear wepoans, Pakistan, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy

The Next Nuclear Failed State………….

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“Shi’ites, who make up over a quarter of Pakistan’s population, are deemed “apostates” by many extremist sectarian Sunni groups. Responsibility for the attack on the long-suffering Hazaras of Baluchistan was claimed by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) — a group also suspected of a devastating attack earlier in the week on the home of a senior police officer in Karachi who has a record of taking on the militants. Though little known in the West, LeJ, a sectarian extremist outfit linked to al-Qaeda and to the Pakistani Taliban, is now widely considered Pakistan’s most dangerous terrorist group…….. The army is reluctant to confront its bases with force; the police have failed to protect those it threatens; the judiciary is unable to successfully prosecute its leading members; and some politicians have sought to appease it with shady deals. While al-Qaeda has suffered a series of setbacks after CIA drone strikes killed successive leaders based in Pakistan’s tribal areas, its local affiliate remains unimpeded. LeJ began life as a particularly vicious offshoot of the banned anti-Shi’ite Sipah-e-Sahaba organization. The sectarian group, with its cells seeded throughout the country, held both doctrinal and organizational appeal for al-Qaeda, which used LeJ’s deep and pervasive network to expand its own presence into Pakistan. While al-Qaeda had operational command, LeJ supplied foot soldiers to carry out attacks…………..”

“Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan’s ISI of treachery, but says let’s keep talking…….The chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff said to the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday that Pakistan’s
intelligence agency was in the background of the recent attack on our embassy,
as well as a bunch of other assaults. But he seems happy to keep on chatting
with them……….” Media (Sept 23, 2011)

What was all the ‘Western” talk about the dangers of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands through “extremist” states?
Cheers
mhg


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Culture, Iran, Khamenei

Mohsen Makhmalbaf: an Iranian Icon on the Run, Weaver of Velvet………

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“Mohsen Makhmalbaf, one of Iran’s most high-profile film directors, has been on the move for six and a half years. He left Iran in 2005 to avoid restrictions on his film-making and has since moved to Afghanistan, Tajikstan, India, Paris and finally London. Makhmalbaf’s films include the 2001 film “Kandahar,” which won an award at the Cannes Film Festival and was listed by Time magazine as one of the 100 best movies ever. He has won more than a dozen international awards for his films…….”I moved from Iran about six and a half years ago to make more films because at that time the Iranian government doesn’t let me make more films in Iran”……… Leaving his country, Makhmalbaf said, was the price for continuing to make films, but it was a decision he did not take lightly. He said: “When we are out of our country somehow we become a little depressed, we lose our root in our culture but we will find something more. We could see our nation from outside from different angles.”Being out of Iran, out of the Middle East, is not easy for me really because I belong to that part of the earth…………..”

His last name in Persian means “velvet weaver” or “weaver of velvet”, as his films are……

Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Hezbollah, Iraq, Lebanon, Muqtada al-Sadr

Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr on the Hezbollah Trail…….

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“The men, once members of the Mahdi Army, the militia of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, fought the Americans in the first years of the occupation and say they will again if Mr. Sadr gives the order. But for now they have come to wage a different battle in the ranks of the Mumahidoon, the successor to the Mahdi Army that, besides offering its members lessons in the Koran, organizes soccer teams, provides circumcision for the babies of poor families, picks up trash after religious pilgrimages and teaches computer literacy. On the eve of what is likely to be a nearly complete withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq, one of the great questions is what Mr. Sadr is going to do. The Mumahidoon is one possible direction. Created after Mr. Sadr disbanded the Mahdi Army in 2008, it is a lesser-known spoke of an Islamist movement that, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and in the West Bank, has used political, military and social arms — with financial support from Iran — to galvanize a Shiite underclass and stake out a prominent role in public life………….”

Muqtada al-Sadr seems to be moving on the trail first blazed by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Years ago, while the potentates and the elite warlords in Beirut were busy looking after their own interests, with the traditional Shi’a politicians doing the same thing, Hezbollah emerged quickly on the heels of Amal. Hezbollah, and Amal, filled a role the Lebanese government had never cared to fill: it provided education, health care, and social services to the neglected poor of southern Lebanon and increasingly to the inhabitants of south Beirut. Both groups together now represent a plurality of Lebanese. The Israeli invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon further strengthened Hezbollah with volunteers, as did the inflow of Iranian money.

Hamas, on the other end of the spectrum of Islamic fundamentalism, the Sunni end, did almost the same thing. While the Fatah kleptocrats in Ramallah were fighting over the division of foreign aid among themselves, Hamas provided many of the services the PA was supposed to provide, and ended up winning the last Palestinian elections.

Now the Sadrists clearly see a need that is neglected by the warring and grasping politicians in Baghdad. If they continue on this path, the Sadrists will control the city of Baghdad, if not in name then in every other way that counts. They will not have the distraction of a border conflict with Israel.
Cheers
mhg


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Corruption, Culture, Finance, France, Libya, U.S. Politics

Corruption in the French Political Class, or ‘what bears do in the forest’……

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“President Nicolas Sarkozy has distanced himself from a suspected corruption scandal that has roiled the French political class after an investigating magistrate began legal action against two of his close allies. Investigators are probing whether a French defense deal in the 1990s with Pakistan involving suspected kickbacks set the stage for a Karachi car bombing in 2003 that killed 15 people – mostly French defense contractors . In a statement Thursday, Sarkozy’s office said his name is not mentioned in any documents ……….”

What else is new? Several French presidents have been implicated and investigated for corruption, the last one being Chirac and now Sarkozy. None has been punished. There have been cases of cash paid, other financial benefits, and there have been cases of diamonds and precious stones gifted by African dictators. There are occasionally French politicians who truly feel angry at being accused, perhaps because they are innocent. There was one former French Prime Minister (I met him a couple of times when he was Finance Minister) who felt upset enough about accusations against him to commit suicide about ten years ago. He was unusual in that case and I suspect he may have been innocent.
Now in American politics they have more clever ways of getting the money to the politicians. There are millions of campaign fund donations, and there are more direct benefits through highly-paid speeches to special interest groups, as well as junkets and there are probably other ways as well. Then, for those who behave themselves and mind the interests of the lobbies, there are lucrative jobs waiting after they lose elections.
Now about Sarkozy, the Hero of Libya and aspiring hero of My Gulf. Oh well, you know the common American saying about ‘what bears do in the fores’……..
Cheers
mhg


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Apartheid, Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, GCC, Gulf states, Human Right, Persian-American Gulf

Civil War in Bahrain? in everything but name………….

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“IN THE villages inhabited by Bahrain’s Shia majority on the outskirts of the capital, Manama, protesters battle with police every day. Seven months after demonstrators called for democratic reforms by Bahrain’s Sunni rulers, prompting a harsh crackdown, there is still no sign of sectarian reconciliation. A set of by-elections on September 24th for 18 of the 40 seats in the lower house of parliament is meant to convey a sense of progress but may well do the opposite. Pro-democracy campaigners, nearly all of them Shias, have called for the villagers to unite in a mass march back to Manama to reclaim Pearl roundabout, the hub of the protests until government troops routed demonstrators there in March. Since then at least 35 people have been killed. Any march back to the capital will be blocked by a large-scale security presence. Another violent confrontation is quite likely. The elections are unlikely to improve matters. The 18 seats were abandoned in February by Shias who walked out of parliament in protest at the government’s repression. Bahrain’s main opposition party, Wefaq, is boycotting the poll…………“People are not afraid any more,” says Mr Matar, who was beaten in prison and spent 45 days in solitary confinement, sometimes hearing the screams of other inmates. “They have seen the worst that the government can do and they have kept coming back.……”….”

Also sprach The Economist. The harsh crackdown by the Bahrain regime is probably seen now by some sane members of the ruling al-Khalifa clan as a big mistake. The regime threw what it thought were its best cards on the table. It threw everything in its arsenal at the people: security forces, snipers, foreign mercenaries, Saudi and Emirati troops, killings, beatings, prison, torture, sexual assault, mass firing from jobs, expelling from schools and colleges. It has not been enough: so what else can they do, other than the logical obvious they refuse to do? As the man said: people are not afraid anymore, they have seen what the despots can dish out, and they are not impressed.
What Bahrain has experienced since last February is a low level civil war, with each side using the best weapons it perceives at its disposal. The protesters are not using lethal weapons, but they are battling the well-armed regime and its local goons and foreign mercenaries and foreign occupation forces. The regime clings to its policy of apartheid and disenfranchising most of the people. The people now insist on nothing less than full rights: political and economic. It is a low level civil war that risks spreading, a direct result of the foolish policies of the Al Khalifa kleptocracy and their closest allies, nay their masters, across the Gulf.
It is a low level civil war that has no end in sight unless one of two things happen: the people give up their rights and accept despotism and apartheid or the rulers see where all this is leading their small country and give the people back their rights.
Cheers
mhg


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Economics, Iran, U.S. Congress, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Ahmadinejad on the U.S. Economy, his American Well-Wishers…….

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“Mr. Ahmadinejad also indulged in a bit of triumphalism. He acknowledged that the West’s “crippling” sanctions against Iran had “worked well.” But he added: “Does Iran face more problems or the United States of America?” He referred to the “collapse” of the American financial system and suggested that Iran’s economy is in better shape. He added that the West will be driven by its weakness to “seek a rapprochement with Iran.” Then the interview was over, and Mr. Ahmadinejad zoomed back from bombast to conciliation. He beamed and told me: “We truly like and love the people of the United States.”………….”

Ahmadinejad was gloating on television yesterday. He rattled off statistics, real data, about the U.S. economy that should worry any American. He talked about unemployment, poverty, widening inequality, public debt, prisoner ratios, and other issues. Of course, he did not care to mention how the Iranian economy and the Iranian people have been doing under his regime.
Like I said, the statistics he rattled off should worry most Americans and not just some. Most of the U. S. economic problems have been self-inflicted, especially the past obsession with “deregulation” and gutting oversight, while more of Iran’s problems are foreign-inflicted. Yet I have no doubt that there are Americans also gloating over some of the same statistics (while denying some of them). Ahmadinejad was trying to get back at the U.S. for imposing tough sanctions on his country. On the other hand, some Americans are no doubt seriously hoping for the hard times to continue, but only until after the elections of 2012.
A twist of fate: Mr. Ahmadinejad knows that the health of the Iranian economy is tied to the health of the U.S. economy, sanctions or no sanctions. He did not and he does not wish the American economy any ill, for his own country’s sake. American policy-makers also know that the health of the world economy is tied to the ability of Iran (as well as others) to produce petroleum, that same crude stuff that U.S. politicians rail about in public and want o “boycott’. They also know that a cessation of Iranian exports will cause prices to skyrocket, but probably help a couple of places like Texas and the Gulf of Mexico operations.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, censorship, Iran, Saudi Arabia

From Tehran to Riyadh: Cranking up the Censorship Machine………

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“Saudi Arabian bloggers and journalists say the arch-conservative Islamic kingdom will find it hard to douse glimmers of more open reporting despite a tightening of media rules after the spread of popular revolts through the Arab world………… The world’s number one oil exporter announced a series of stricter regulations for journalists after “Arab Spring” unrest hit neighbouring countries earlier this year……… In a royal decree issued in March as protests were boiling over in the region in March, Saudi King Abdullah forbade criticism of senior members of the Sunni Muslim clergy. A new media law issued in April then threatened fines and the closure of publications that offended top figures or were seen to jeopardise stability. More recently, a leaked draft of an anti-terrorism law classified “endangering national security” and “harming the reputation of the state” as terrorist offences………..Twenty years ago, newspapers were so worried about upsetting the Saudi government that they waited days before reporting on Iraq’s invasion of the kingdom’s neighbour Kuwait………..”

I don’t see that it makes any difference. Nobody inside the Kingdom without Magic has ever openly criticized the princes or the top clergy openly, not unless they wanted to vanish (a few who did, did). Or unless they are in the safety of exile.

As for this part: “Twenty years ago, newspapers were so worried about upsetting the Saudi government that they waited days before reporting on Iraq’s invasion of the kingdom’s neighbour Kuwait ”. Yeah, unfortunately I remember that one: the princes were scared s–tless, to use a vulgar high-school term, from Saddam’s Baathist military which proved to be like a hollow Mexican piñata (sans the candy) when faced with the Americans. It took a visit by Dick Cheney (then US Secretary of Defense) and the promise of US troops to get them to mention the invasion and to cooperate. All this is not mentioned in our ‘genteel’ Gulf media: it is considered un-brotherly, or perhaps un-sisterly, to mention it in mixed company
.
All this is a regional phenomenon, not just a Saudi one. From Iran through Riyadh and all the way to Algeria, they all seek ways to stifle free opinion. Their main worry now is the Internet, a newish beast that they can’t seem to figure how to control. Unless they ban it as Saddam did in Iraq.
Cheers
mhg





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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Libya, NATO

Is the Libyan Insurgency becoming the Libyan War?…………..

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“With armed loyalists of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the fallen Libyan leader, still ensconced in his hometown and a few other redoubts as the seven-month-old Libyan conflict winds down, NATO announced a three-month extension of its bombing campaign on Wednesday. “We are determined to continue our mission for as long as necessary, but ready to terminate the operation as soon as possible,” the NATO secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said in a statement from the alliance’s Brussels headquarters. It is the second 90-day extension, and it was approved less than a week before the campaign was set to end…… As if to answer him, Britain’s Defense Ministry announced Wednesday that its warplane contingent in the NATO Libya operation had attacked loyalists’ military deployments in three areas. Tornado GR4’s hit targets in Colonel Qaddafi’s hometown, Surt; in the loyalist desert enclave of Bani Walid; and in the north-central town of Hun………..”

Now, is the formerly “Libyan insurgency” becoming the “Libyan War”, with NATO and a faction of the NATO-baked former rebels facing a new insurgency by Qaddafi loyalists? If Colonel Qaddafi and his Qaddafistas linger and regroup and the new Tripoli regime proves incapable of handling them, rooting them out. If, as the verse says. Libya covers a lot of ground, borders six countries and the sea. Yes it can, yes it can, but let’s hope not.
(I also wonder how they pronounce the middle name of Anders Fogh Rasmussen in Libya)
Cheers
mhg


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Israel, Middle East, Palestine, U.S. Politics, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

Next Year in Jerusalem, Next Year in New York, Next Year at the U.N.………….

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“Israeli officials: Palestinians routed, about to fold” YNet News (Israel)

“French president Sarkozy says UN will not vote on Palestinian state this year, promises a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli impasse within a year” Reports

Yesterday it almost looked like the Palestinian “authority”, never known for its backbone, had surrendered again. Reports quoted American and French officials that ‘negotiations’ will resume to reach a solution within one year. Sounds familiar? Remember 2009, when the new and “extremely naïve” Obama administration started negotiations with Israelis and Palestinians with a solemn promise that they will solve everything within one year. At that time I wrote here “forgetaboutit”. One year? It is too short a time to reach never.
The Jewish people have a mantra that they repeated during their long Diaspora , especially at every Passover Seder: “Next year in Jerusalem”. It kept them focused on the promise and the goal, which they eventually achieved. Now the Palestinians will have to adopt a new mantra “Next year in New York” or maybe just “Next year at the UN”.
Except it won’t be next year, or the year after, or any other year after, as long as the Likud and its right-wing allies rule the roost.
Cheers
mhg


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