Rattlesnake Ridge      

 
      BFF

The Syrian Ba’athist regime of Bashar al-Assad says it wants to reform but the ‘opposition’ says it is not enough and anyway it might be too little too late. Arab regimes are divided: some want the Assad regime to remain because it is their ally (Iran, Hezbollah, possibly Iraq), others want the Assad regime to fall for the same reason the three mentioned earlier want it to remain in power, yet others reluctantly want it to remain because they fear the unknown alternative (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey). Syria is potentially the most explosive case among Arab states facing revolt: it is almost impossible to predict what will replace the Assad regime, and the regional stakes for all concerned are far greater than in Libya or Tunisia. Assad is close to Iran but that does not mean the next regime will be closer to Saudi Arabia or to the West, or necessarily more hostile to Iran. Or less hostile, or more hostile, to Israel. The opposition itself is divided, depending on geography to some extent. They can’t seem to bring out the type of masses seen in Egypt and Tunisia.
Complicated, but the killings have to stop, for the Syrian people deserve to have their say and vote freely for their government. As should ALL Arab peoples have that right.
Cheers
mhg



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