Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, Corruption, GCC, Human Right

On My Gulf: The King Giveth and the King Taketh Away……….

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      BFF
“The national dialogue did express support for a “fairer” electoral system but there are no plans to change constituency boundaries or other mechanisms that preserve Sunni control: one Shia constituency has 15 times as many voters as a small Sunni one – classic gerrymandering. No wonder critics were quick to dismiss the dialogue as a sham. “An exercise in make-believe,” is the blunt conclusion of a new report by the International Crisis Group. And the king, it seems likely, will continue to appoint the prime minister and rely on an unelected upper chamber of parliament to keep MPs in check and his own power untrammelled. And there is no sign that the government will halt its controversial policy of “political naturalisation” of non-Bahraini Sunnis – imported from Syria, Jordan, Yemen and even Pakistan – to fill the ranks of the security forces (from which Shias are largely excluded) – to tip the demographic balance………..”

Of course they will do what it takes. The rulers and their elite retainers and minions have a good thing going: they have their goose that lays the golden egg, at the expense of most of the people. The neighbors, the Al-Saud and Al-Nahayn of Abu Dhabi will not stand for anything resembling democracy in Bahrain. Not now that they have their armed forces in the place.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Human Right, Iraq, Syria

Syria Divided: Arab Spring, Arab Toothpaste………….

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      BFF
“On one of the city’s main streets, families have still gathered every night on the sidewalks and in the medians for nighttime picnics. Vendors crowd around selling hookahs, popcorn, sandwiches and coffee. Traffic moves slowly as people park cars by the sidewalk and open doors and windows to let music stream out to entertain the crowds……. But Aleppo’s reluctance to join the revolution goes beyond any alleged cowardice. As a financially stable city, Aleppo was already less likely to revolt, and since the nationwide unrest erupted in mid-March, residents have by turns been made complacent by government enticements and scared by the overwhelming presence of security agents and spies. Whereas Damascus is the capital and administrative hub of Syria, Aleppo is the economic center where much of the money flows, said Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian opposition activist and dissident in the United States. Many of the country’s factories, textile plants and pharmaceutical companies are in the city………….”

The regime in Syria, just like those in Libya and Yemen, just like all Arab regimes whether dictatorships or monarchies, clings to power. As a Ba’ath Party regime, it is more willing to kill its own people than say, even the Mubarak regime in Egypt. The Ba’ath Party has had a specially dark and bloody history, in both Iraq and Syria. It started as an imitator of Europe’s Fascist “Nationalist” parties, but later acquired socialists pretensions after the expansion of Soviet power. Yet it soon descended, especially in Iraq, to a basically tribal power center (tribal in the literal sense and in the broader sense of a clan or a sect). In that, the Ba’ath rule became no different from any dictatorship or absolute monarchy; only it was bloodier than both other cases because of the mutual mistrust with the people. Neither Nasser nor Sadat or Mubarak in Egypt were ever nearly as repressive as the Ba’ath, nor were most Arab monarchies with one exception (some would say two exceptions).
No doubt the Syrian toothpaste is out of the tube. Yet the shape of the future is unknown. Arab despots are very creative in bargaining with their people and clinging to their power under different, new, guises. And the outside world (especially the West) does not like any change not of its own making. That is why the overall verdict on the so-called Arab Spring is undecided, yet.
Cheers
mhg


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Arabian Peninsula, Human Right, religious police, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism

Saudi Anti-Terror Law subject to Revision? About U.S. Bible Belt Worries………..

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      BFF
“Saudi Arabia has revised an anti-terrorism law and made it less severe than a leaked version that was heavily criticized by human rights groups, a Shura Council spokesman said on Saturday. “The draft that was published is not the final one,” said Mohammed Almohanna, spokesman for the advisory parliament. “It was discussed in a Shura Council session. It was a draft and some changes were made to it to ensure that the law is compatible with Sharia (Islamic law) and does not violate citizens’ rights or the country’s existing laws,” he said. He said the Shura would amend the draft further when its summer recess ends in mid-September before sending it to the king for approval. Amnesty International, which published a draft of the Penal Law for Terrorism Crimes and Financing Terrorism on its website, said on July 22 that the authorities could use the law to stifle dissent…………”

This spokesman for the Shura Council talks as if it has any power. The Shura is an appointed advisory council, just like the cabinet, and takes its orders from the ruling family. They basically rubber-stamp whatever is sent over by the princes, which usually is not much. It doesn’t matter what they have on the law books, provided there are any: they do what it takes not just to stifle dissent, but to crush it.
On the bright side, they don’t chop the heads of dissidents anymore. They arrest them and throw them in prison for long periods of time, some without charges or trial.
(Also these guys should not mention the Shari’a Law to the Western press. The folks in places like Oklahoma and Tennessee and Texas get panicky and start voting to ban “Sharia Law”, wtf that be in their own Bible Belt context).
Cheers
mhg


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Anti-Semitism, Arab Counterrevoltion, Israel, Saudi Arabia

Reverse Tea Party of Tel Aviv, the Cleric against the World Plot………..

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      BFF
Haaretz reports that about 300,000 people gathered in Tel Aviv, 20,000 participated in Jerusalem, 3,000 in Kiryat Shmona, 5,000 in Modi’in,1,000 in Hod Hasharon and 1,000 in Eilat. However, those close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the media had inflated the numbers of participants in the protests. Mr Netanyahu claimed that the numbers are vastly exaggerated, that perhaps only 290,000 were involved in Tel Aviv instead of 300,000. This is sort of a reverse Tea Party: in the United States it is noted that only the extreme right-wing can mobilize huge numbers these days, mostly from among the Tea Party foot soldiers (also known as political cannon fodder).
Now we await a new verdict from the Saudi clerics who earlier condemned Arab protests (outside Libya) as anti-Islamic. They did not specifically ban Jews from protesting. Yet they can use this as proof that world Jewry are behind the popular Arab uprisings against oppression and corruption of their rulers. Just as they used to advise that Communism (remember communism?) was part of a Jewish plot to misguide the faithful and take over the whole world.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Sanctions

Iran’s Military-Industrial-Clergy Complex……..

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      BFF
“Iran’s parliament approved President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s candidate as oil minister on Wednesday, putting a military commander who is under international sanctions in charge of production in the world’s fifth biggest crude exporter. A huge majority — 216 of the 246 lawmakers present — voted in favour of Rostam Qasemi, a Revolutionary Guards commander, a rare victory for Ahmadinejad who has been severely criticised by parliament in recent months. Qasemi takes control of the oil ministry as Iran holds the rotating presidency of OPEC where it has strongly resisted calls by more Western-friendly producers to increase output quotas. His most important task will be to stem declining output from Iran’s mature oil fields and develop vast gas resources where sanctions have restricted foreign investment…… The European Union put him on a sanctions list in July 2010, meaning he is not allowed to travel or hold assets in the EU.……….”

A strange appointment. Perhaps not his favorite candidate, but do-able in parliament. President Ahmadinejad initially appointed himself acting minister of oil, but Parliament objected. Gradually we are seeing veterans of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the new elites of Iran, get into prominent cabinet posts. Like China in recent decades, like Egypt under Sadat and Mubarak, like other militarized states, Iran’s IRGC is spreading its tentacles throughout the bureaucracy and the economy. A few decades ago U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower, on leaving office, warned of the military-industrial complex. His fear has been realized in a military-corporate-congressional complex. In Iran we are seeing a military(IRGC)-industrial-clergy complex that is dominating the economy (and the politics). Unfortunately.
For all its worth: this new minister will not be able to attend OPEC meetings in Vienna or anywhere else in the European Union. But that is okay, he won’t miss the ambiance of Vienna.
Cheers
mhg


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Apartheid, Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, Corruption, ethnic cleansing, Human Right

Photoshop of Facts in Bahrain: Where the Buck Does not Stop…………

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““The situation has evolved because the king and certainly the crown prince are much more committed to the rule of law and human rights than other persons in the government and the Al-Khalifa clan,” he said in a phone interview late Thursday. “The mere fact that the king has appointed this commission and the Interior Ministry is cooperating shows me things have changed.” The investigation itself, he warned, cannot right relations between Bahrain’s rulers and its Shi’ite population, which says it is systematically denied access to land, housing and state employment on sectarian grounds. “This doesn’t address the endemic problems, doesn’t address the need for political change, for a new constitution, the economic disparities or the political division of Sunnis and Shi’a. All the underlying problems remain,” Bassiouni said. “That’s not going to solve the problems of power disparities between the Shi’ite population and the Sunni rulers, nor the feeling of injustice the Shi’a community has.”……… “What I have found so far is the extraordinary willingness of the minister to listen to anything we bring to his attention and act on it, whether it’s suspension of police officers, arrest of police officers, or release of detainees,” he said. “It leads me to believe that on his part there was never a policy of excessive use of force or torture…that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I think it was a case of people at the lower level acting ……………”

Perhaps Mr. Bassiouni is trying to goad the ruling family of Bahrain back toward serious negotiations, which would mean serious concession to the rights of the people. To do that he may be willing to “photoshop” some facts. It is a novel approach: in most other cases of abuse those at the top were, rightly, blamed. He is blaming some at the bottom, hard case to make an absolute oligarchy. Yet his “investigation” is just starting.
The fact that people were tortured, assaulted, killed is blamed on “lower level” people”. Perhaps Bassiouni can also blame it on the fact that many regime mercenaries speak no Arabic (mostly Urdu) or a different dialect of Arabic and could not properly communicate with their victims. Then he needs to explain why Bahrain’s official media, the BTV, was a bullhorn of sectarian and ethnic hatred for so long? And why so many mosques and religious structures were deliberately demolished? And did the Pakistani mercenaries accuse the protesting Arab people of Bahrain of being traitors and part of an Iranian plot? And did the foreign mercenaries invite the Saudi National Guard to invade and wreak havoc? And did the thugs (baltagiya) decide on their own to conduct organized systematic raids of people’s homes after mid-night? Does this mean we will be seeing trials of those responsible and court decisions? The toughest case will be to explain the regime’s appointment of an (alleged) former torturer to attend the failed “dialog”.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Economics, Egypt, Finance, Iran, North Africa

Arab Revolutions and Oligarchs: with a Little Help from their Friends…….

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      BFF
“What would you think if I sang out of tune,

Would you stand up and walk out on me.

Lend me your ears and I’ll sing you a song,

And I’ll try not to sing out of key.

Oh I get by with a little help from my friends,

Mmm,I get high with a little help from my friends,

Mmm, I’m gonna try with a little help from my friends……..” The Beatles (also sung by Joe Cocker and Arab Oligarchs)

“It is hard to say for sure who took down the portrait of the revolution’s most famous martyr, Mohamed Bouazizi, from its perch atop a garish gold statue on the street where he set himself on fire, touching off a season of revolt across the Arab world. One man said unnamed counterrevolutionaries did it, and another man said it was damaged by rain. Mr. Bouazizi’s neighbors say it was taken down in disgust, several weeks ago, after his mother, uncle and siblings left Sidi Bouzid, an act the neighbors considered a betrayal……. But more than that, they said they were furious at being left behind, in a place with no jobs, money or hope, without the famous Bouazizis to give voice to their despair……. It is a measure of the deep frustration in Sidi Bouzid that a few people have lashed out at the town’s favorite son. That anger is misplaced, most residents say, blaming the lack of progress here on the transitional government, which has moved slowly to address one of the revolution’s central complaints — youth unemployment — especially here in the towns of central Tunisia, where the uprising began. The bitterness here stands in stark contrast to a guarded optimism elsewhere in Tunisia about the progress of the revolution, and it threatens to undermine the gains: Several times in the last few months, disputes over jobs have led to deadly episodes of violence……..In Tunisia, as in Egypt, the optimism fueled by a popular uprising has crashed into the cold reality that life has not quickly improved, and in many cases has even grown more challenging as economies stall and interim leaders struggle to build a new system……….”

The Tunisian revolution is still unfinished, anymore than the revolution in Egypt. In both countries long-term dictators were overthrown but their appointees, whether civilian or military, are trying to keep the old order in place. In Egypt the military is asserting its supreme power and it looks set to keep on playing a leading role no matter who wins the ‘election’. The military rulers are almost certainly looking to oversee a “soft democracy”, slightly more open than under Mubarak, perhaps with leaders having term limits as in Iran (but the power of the military in Egypt, like that of the clergy in Iran, will have no term limits). In Tunisia there is probably more consensus among the people about the future of the country, but real change will be hard.
 
Both countries will eventually look more to the IMF and World Bank for financial help and advice on how to manage their economies. The IMF and IBRD are the same institutions that funded and advised the old regimes: ergo, don’t hold your breath expecting anything new. Both countries will also look to the West for help and advice, look to the same insane deregulated economic/financial system that has driven us to the brink of another depression.
Then there are the Arab counterrevolutionaries, flush with cash, who did not wish for the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings to succeed but now seek to subvert them. Now the Arab absolute monarchs and their media are talking as if they were behind the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt the whole time. They are holding the line, these Arab counterrevolutionaries, in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain, and they are making sure it does not start elsewhere. With a little help from their friends.
Cheers
mhg


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Corruption, Culture, Economics, Finance, U.S. Congress

The Lehman Precedent and Goldman’s Catharsis: WTF Rates Standard & Poor ?………….

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      BFF
“Standard & Poor’s is taking great pains to defend its “A” rating for Lehman Holdings Inc. The rating company fired off a report Wednesday asserting that the recent collapse of the investment banking firm was a case of negative market sentiment — whether or not grounded in fundamentals — creating significant difficulties that led the company to the point of failure. “In our view, Lehman had a strong franchise across its core investment banking, trading, and investment management business,” S&P stated. “It had adequate liquidity relative to reasonably severe and foreseeable temporary stresses.” The ratings service insisted that looking beyond the current downturn, the firm had good earnings-generating ability. “We believe the downfall of Lehman reflected escalating fears that led to a loss of confidence ………..”

Thus wrote Paul Krugman in Sept. 2008 about Standard and Poor (S & P) high rating of Lehman Bros just before it collapsed. Ergo, the S & P downgrading U.S. debt is probably as meaningless as its high grade of Lehman. Good point. I think I asked around that time: wtf rates S & P?
Goldman Sachs evaded the fate of Lehman because it had, it has, too many people in Washington in its deep pockets. That would have been a better lesson, a needed financial catharsis. Dommage……..
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Bahrain, Corruption, GCC, Human Right, Saudi Arabia

GCC: Two Sweet Princes Exchange Notes……………

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“Manama, Aug 3 (BNA) His Royal Highness the Prime Minister Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa today received a telephone call from the Saudi Second Deputy Premier and Minister of Interior Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. During the conversation both sides exchange best wishes on the occasion of the advent of the holy month of Ramadan. Moreover, both sides also reviewed historic brotherly ties existing between Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom of Bahrain along with regional and international developments……….”

I wonder wtf these tow sweethearts talked about on the phone. What “international developments” they could be interested in: global warming? deforestation of the Amazon? World disarmament? The NFL team rankings?

Cheers
mhg


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Culture, Culture and Sports, UAE, WTF

The Suspiciously Lusty Ramadan Ghosts of Dubai……..

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      BFF
“Located deep in the heart of Jumeirah 1, this seven-bedroom hotspot of paranormal activity is home to a group of Filipinos who claim to have experienced visitations for over a year now. Most unusual, perhaps, is Lora’s encounters with a male “spirit”. Lora’s spooky story began in November last year when she was awakened at 3am. “I felt an intense pressure all over my body, as though there was a person sleeping on top of me. I tried to sit up, but couldn’t move anything besides my fingers and toes. On the curtains I could see a dark shadow atop me,” she says. “A few nights later, I could hear a man moaning from my roommate Mary’s bed. At first I thought her husband was back from the Philippines, but a quick peak revealed Mary was fast asleep with that mysterious shadow on top of her reflecting on the wall.”……… Louise, a Filipino teacher who lives in one of the ground floor bedrooms, says she’s afraid to enter her own kitchen alone because she feels “a strong presence in the kitchen and the adjoining toilet. Often, the kitchen becomes exceedingly cold, or the bathroom door slams open and shuts, the flush goes off mysteriously….…..”

Obviously these male “spirits” have no respect for the holy month of Ramadan. Extra-marital intimacy is no-no in any month, even if the parties are male ghosts and Catholic women. Even if it is inadvertent. There is a lot of monkey business going on in that house.
Cheers
mhg


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Multidisciplinary: Middle East, North Africa, Gulf, GCC, World, Cosmos…..