Category Archives: Syria

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Muslims, Salafi, Syria, Tunisia

Arab Revolts and Islam: Iranian Illusions, Saudi Machinations…….

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“Former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati says the use of the term ‘Arab spring’ is an attempt by the West to liken uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa to ‘color revolutions’ in East European countries. By using such a term the Westerners have been seeking to deny the significant role of “Islam” in inspiring revolutions in the Muslim Arab countries, Velayati said. The Westerners use the term “Arab spring” to convey their desired “view” of the revolutions in the region, the scholar-turned politician noted. Western countries seek to convey this view that “Muslim nations have got rid of Hosni Mubarak and Bin Ali ….to embrace Western approaches,” Velayati told the Mehr News Agency. They refuse to acknowledge the fact that the uprisings in Arab countries are inspired by Islam because it contravenes with their approach, explained Velayati, the senior foreign policy advisor to the Supreme Leader. “If Muslim nations who have risen up (against dictatorship) accept Arab spring they will have no alternative other than following the Westerners; however, the reality is that regional nations have cried Allahu Akbar (God is great) ……………”

The Iranian mullahs insist that the Arab uprisings were motivated by Islamist zeal. I have tried to explain to them many times that all these revolts started as secular movements and that the Muslim fundamentalists joined later, when they showed some success. Now, with the clear shift of political power in all these states to the Islamist fundamentalists, the Iranians may know something the rest of us don’t.

One of the most secular Arab states ‘was’ Tunisia, Bourguiba and Bin Ali made sure of that, and it is going Islamist. So is Egypt and Libya. Syria was absolutely the most secular Arab state of our modern times. Yet if the revolt against the Assad regime succeeds, as it looks like now, then Syrians will have a choice of alliances between: (1)Pro-Saudi Muslim Brothers, (1)Other Muslim Brothers, (3) Salafis (bought, signed, sealed, and delivered), (4) a weak minority of watered-down secularists. In the end the new Syrian regime will be dominated by Islamic fundamentalists of one stripe or another.
That is why I may humor the Iranians and say they may have a point. Still, the outcome may not be what the Iranians would have liked. Probably not.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, GCC, Iraq, Libya, NATO, North Africa, Syria, US Foreign Policy

On the Western Liberation of Iraq and Libya and Syria and………….

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“Al-Asaad told us that despite being grossly under-resourced, he is getting more and more recruits every day. The latest reports put the size of the armed opposition force at anywhere between 1,000 and 25,000. In his interview, the colonel told us that he unequivocally is not seeking a coup and supports the Syrian National Council as the legitimate representative of the people. He also stressed that the force he is assembling is inclusive and non-sectarian. Finally, he makes a plea to U.S. President Barack Obama to offer quick and decisive support for the resistance and underscores that the establishment of a buffer zone, as proposed by Turkey and France, could accelerate defections and change the course of the conflict……….”

The Syrians who did not like American intervention in Iraq are now eager for American and French and British (and possibly Israeli) intervention in Syria. That is after the NATO intervention in Libya, which was aided and abetted by the Arabs. The hypocrisy some Arab leaders, and some opinion-makers of the Wahhabi faux-liberal stripe, especially in the Gulf GCC, is breath-taking (I like this last word more and more these days).
These Arabs cheered and helped and participated in the invasion (or liberation) of Iraq, only to turn around and bitterly criticize it when things did not go their way. They even pushed for a second American liberation of Iraq, a retake, just to set things right from the Wahhabi point of view. They practically pushed (an eager) NATO to intervene and liberate Libya from its ruling dynasty even as they helped chain the people of Bahrain to their repressive and corrupt dynasty of thieves.
Now they want to the USA and NATO to liberate Syria from its ‘current’ despotic rulers. Some claim they want the West to liberate Syria from the Assad regime, others that they want NATO to liberate Syria (politically) from Iran, some say they want it liberated from both. Some of them also want to liberate Syria fully by aligning it with the royal theocracy of the People’s Democratic Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I wonder if they also want to liberate the Golan, and from whom.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Revolutions, Human Right, Syria

Arab League: 17 Top Syrians not allowed to Enjoy the Exciting Diversions of Riyadh and Had el-Homara ……….

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“The Arab League, which voted to impose sanctions on Syria for failing to end a crackdown on protesters, has listed 17 people banned from travel to Arab states, including President Bashar al-Assad’s brother, Egypt’s state news agency said on Thursday. The list also included the defense and interior ministers, intelligence officials and senior military officers. The president’s brother, Maher al-Assad, who was listed, commands the Republican Guard and is Syria’s second most powerful man. An Arab League committee charged with overseeing sanctions recommended stopping flights to and from Syria…………”

So these despots and killers will not be able to travel around the region and enjoy the amenities of places like Riyadh and Fujairah and Had ElHmarah. Serves them right, but I know other despots who can enjoy the amenities of Riyadh all they want.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, US Foreign Policy

Chutzpah of the Arab League: Saudis and Bahrainis and Emiratis Monitoring Syrian Human Rights……..

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“BreakingNews Breaking News: Arab League offers to send 500 human rights and military observers to Syria, says Egypt TV -@BBCWorld…………….”

This is what I read Monday. The Arab League will send “human rights” observers to Syria! No doubt it will include Saudis, Bahrainis, Emiratis, and maybe Yemenis. Or maybe they will be supervised by these countries. All regimes that have shown great respect for human rights, allow free speech, do not kill protesters, do not arrest people without warrants and do not hold them for months either without charges (Saudi Arabia) or on trumped up charges (Bahrain).
I think the word “chutzpah” should be incorporated into the Arabic language.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Revolutions, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE

From Libya to Syria and Yemen and the Gulf: No-Fly Zones, No Freedom Zones………….

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Arab media are increasingly mentioning the N-F word, for No-Fly zone in terms of Syria. Apparently some factions of the Syrian opposition want Western no-fly zone established over Syria. Hoping it will be a prelude to the arrival of Western Special Forces of the kind that helped defeat Qaddafi in Libya.
Some Arab regimes have already established their own No-Freedom zones. The Saudis had long established an absolute No-Freedom zone in their own part of the Arabian Peninsula and they have recently extended it to neighboring Bahrain. They would also like a No-Freedom zone in neighboring Yemen where the people are in rebellion. Actually, if they had their way, they’d like No-Freedom zones all over the Arab worlds, from the Persian-American Gulf to the Atlas Mountains of Morocco.

Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Jordan, Syria

Bashar al-Assad, King Abdul, and Jordanian Humor, again………….

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““I believe, if I were in his shoes, I would step down,” King Abdullah told the BBC. “If Bashar has the interest of his country, he would step down, but he would also create an ability to reach out and start a new phase of Syrian political life.”…….” (King Abdul of Jordan)

This is the closest that the Jordanian king has ever come to humor, as far as I recall (unless you consider his Star Trek scene). No Arab leader has ever shown any inclination to leave office unless forced to. No Arab bureaucrat has ever shown any inclination to leave office unless forced to. That includes kings, dictators, and their flunkies and minions. It includes Jordanian kings (his father King Hussein killed a lot of people, mostly fellow-humorless Palestinians, in order to stay in power). Maybe I have been wrong about Jordanians; maybe there is a glimmer of some humor somewhere over there. But I need more evidence.
(Of course, the Syrians use their own interrogators and torturers, they don’t import any from Jordan, Unlike the regime in Bahrain and UAE)
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Hillary Clinton on Syria, Nasrallah on Syria, Iran on Syria……

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“eAsiaMediaHub US EAP Media Hub: #SecClinton: Assad has lost his legitimacy to rule & he should step down #Syria”

“Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday warned Israel and the US that a war against Iran and Syria would lead to an all-out regional conflict. “They should understand that a war on Iran and Syria will not remain in Iran and Syrian territory, but it will engulf the whole region and there is no escaping this reality,” Nasrallah said during a televised speech honoring “Martyrs’ Day.”……. “Iran is strong, united and has a one-of-a-kind leader and it will retaliate harshly,” he said in his speech, which was delivered in Beirut’s southern neighborhood ………..”

“Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah called on the US administration and the Zionist entity to understand very well that a war against Iran and Syria will not stay inside Iran and Syria, but will roll instead and spread out to the entire region.…….. “

Hassan Nasrallah is sticking by the Syrian regime, even as the Iranian patrons are (very) slowly moving away. Perhaps the Iranians can see some writing on the wall, or hedging their bets as all politicians (by definition) do. Clearly one does not expect Nasrallah to see eye to eye with Secretary Clinton on Syria, certainly on Lebanon, but diverging from a possible Iranian view is unusual. Of course he diverges only from the views expressed by President Ahmadinejad, which are not necessarily the views of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not these days.
Meanwhile a consensus is emerging that the Assad dynasty rule is about to expire. Things are getting interesting in Syria, but they will get even more interesting after the fall of the Ba’ath party.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Revolutions, France, Libya, NATO, Saudi Arabia, Syria

Thwarted in Iraq, Buoyed in Libya: McCain Seeks a New Maysaloon in Syria……….

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“With NATO bombing of Libya set to end, U.S. Sen. John McCain on Sunday raised the possibility of some kind of military attack on Syria, where the government of Bashar Assad has been accused of brutally cracking down on protesters. “Now that military operations in Libya are ending, there will be renewed focus on what partial military operations might be considered to protect civilian lives in Syria,” McCain (R-Ariz.) said at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Jordan. “The Assad regime should not consider that it can get away with mass murder. Kadafi made that mistake and it cost him everything.” There was no immediate response from the Assad government, which has blamed “armed groups” for the violence that has swept the nation since mid-March. ……….. Still, there is a school of thought that an impasse has been reached seven months into the protest movement and some kind of foreign intervention may be the only way……….”

Foreign intervention? How about Chinese intervention? Or Iranian intervention? Are they as kosher as French intervention?  Maybe McCain will join Sarkozy in leading a new Battle of Maysaloon to retake Syria.


The French reneged (along with the British) on their promise to the Arabs under the Hashemites of Hijaz after World War I. The Brits installed Faisal as King of Syria, only to see the French invade and kick him out to Iraq. Later on, the British allowed Ibn Saud and his Wahhabi forces to invade Hijaz and annex it to their Nejdi kingdom. Jordan and Iraq were the consolation prize.
Cheers
mhg


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Ali Khamenei, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Salafi, Syria, Yemen

Khamenei on “Islamic” Arab Uprisings…………..

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“Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has said the great Islamic movements that have recently arisen in the Muslim world are a prelude to a greater development and the rule of Islam. The Leader made the remarks on Tuesday during a meeting with scholars and intellectuals who attended the fifth meeting of the Ahl al-Bayt World Assembly, which was held in Tehran on Sunday. He also said, “Our stance is to support and strengthen these movements, and we hope that these Islamic movements will bring an end to the hegemony of the main enemies, namely the Zionists and the United States.” In addition, the Leader advised Muslims to be vigilant about the enemies’ threats, especially their plots to create division between Shias and Sunnis. These plots are politically motivated, he said, adding, “The global arrogance (the forces of imperialism) are especially pursuing a policy of Shiaophobia in addition to the policy of Islamophobia………….” Mehr News Agency

Ayatollah Khamenei is wrong, of course, in labeling the Arab uprisings generally as Islamist, calling them “Islamic movements”. They started as quite secular movements in Tunisia and Egypt, and most Islamists like Salafis and many others either opposed or at least hesitated about them. The Islamists, ever opportunistic, especially the Salafis, have jumped on the bandwagon. Yet he has a point in that the Arab states undergoing uprisings are becoming more Islamist. Egypt will almost certainly become more “Islamist”, as will Libya although I suspect Libya is more susceptible to the threat of the Salafi movement. Syria will certainly become much more Islamist and much less secular than under the Baath, if Assad is overthrown, unless the military takes over again. Syria has had a long history of religious tolerance, even more so than Egypt in recent decades. Islamists have a leading role in both the Libyan and Syrian uprisings. Bahrain is already co-governed by the Salafis and Wahhabis who also fear a Shi’a resurgence if the Apartheid system is dismantled. As for Yemen? Who knows. Only Tunisia has some hope of blocking the ambitions of the Islamist parties.
Khamenei is quite right about the dangers of Shiaphobia and Islamophobia.
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, NATO, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey

Syria and Iraq and the Arabs: the New Iranian-Turkish Regional Rivalry………….

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“President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls for dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition and urges the government to respect people’s rights. “We are of the opinion that that nations and governments should resolve their problems with each other (through dialogue),” Ahmadinejad tells Portugal’s Radiotelevisao Portuguesa when asked about Iran’s position toward uprisings in Syria. Ahmadinejad adds, “Governments and nations should respect rights and freedom.”……….” Mehr News Agency (Iran)

“Iran criticizes Turkey for agreeing to host NATO’s missile defense system, saying Iran does not expect Turkey as a neighbor and friendly country to adopt policies that would create tension in the region. “We expect our friendly countries and neighbors to show more vigilance and by considering the region’s security interests do not pave the way for policies that create tension that will definitely lead to ‘complicated consequences’,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says. Turkey has recently agreed to host an early warning radar as part of NATO’s missile defense system which is allegedly aimed to counter missile threats by Iran. Mehmanparast says Iran believes the deployment radar system in Turkey will not serve “regional stability and security” even for the host country……….” Mehr News Agency

These two news items from Iran reflect newly reshuffled cards in the game of musical chairs in our region. There is no doubt now that the Iranians are bracing for change in Syria. Even if the protests in Syrian cities are crushed, regimes like the Ba’ath one in Syria are considered an anomaly now (as are other regimes, but that is for another post). Change is coming and not just in Syria, but whether it is ‘change you can believe in’ depends on your view and your politics.
The Iranians have looked at the players in Syria and probably decided to get ready for any eventuality. It is likely that they have decided to adopt their own Syrian faction: everyone else seems to have their own “Islamist” factions in Syria these days. Sect is not an issue when it comes to politics: the Iranian mullahs are not as ‘pure’ as the Wahhabi potentates in Saudi Arabia, or maybe they can’t afford to be that pure given the demographics of most countries in the region by sect. They may be getting ready to throw the secular Ba’ath regime under the bus, hoping for another “Hamas”. What favors this tack is that the mullahs also know that they have one important card in Syria no matter who comes to power in Damascus: the Golan Heights. The Likud or Kadima will never give up the Golan, which means any new Damascus regime will probably keep its Iranian (and hence its Lebanese) options open. The Iranians invented the game of chess and that is how they play the regional politics, yet they are not immune to the unrest.
Then there is Turkey, which had been sympathetic to the Iranian position on the nuclear issue. Until now. The Arab Spring has reshuffled the regional cards and created new opportunities, and it is not done yet. Silent and latent rivalries, dating back to the Persian-Ottoman struggle over Arab territories like Iraq, are warming up. This is exacerbated by the total paralysis of the Arab system and the inability of the Arab oligarchs to shape events in the region. Despite the billions spent on weapons and on international networking, the region’s fate is still determined by three non-Arab parties and the West. Egypt may regain its pre-Mubarak role as a major regional player, as “the” Arab player, but that depends on how things develop in Cairo. The Iranian-Turkish rivalry in Iraq is more commercial than political since the Iranians seem to have an overwhelming political and cultural and geographic advantage. The Iranian hand in Iraq has been strengthened by the loud disapproval of some Arab regimes of the new order in Iraq.
Syria is another matter: it is a smaller and poorer country. But Syria also has its own issue with Turkey: the small region of Alexandretta that the Syrians claim should be theirs.
When the dust settles on this new Arab Spring, and that may be a few years from now, what we shall see will most likely be quite different from what we now expect. This also includes developments inside Iran.
Cheers
mhg


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