Category Archives: Biden

Trump Redux? Can Biden and Europe Push Iran Toward the North Korean Nuclear Model?

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Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal claimed “confidential” IAEA report says that Iran has started producing Uranium metal. The material can be used to form the core of nuclear weapons. Report said that Iran claimed it is producing it for research purposes…

Two days earlier, Ali Khamenei drew what seemed like a line in the sand. “Americans and Europeans have no right to set any conditions as they violated their JCPOA commitments” Iran’s Leader said the country will only retrace its nuclear countermeasures once the United States lifts its sanctions.

Before that, many reports that Biden is being advised to unilaterally remove “some” financial sanctions on Iran. Possibly indirect ones through European allies. Then what? Will the Ayatollah bite? His statements seem to indicate that he will not. And if they refused an old Trump offer, as Zarif says, why should they accept a new Trump offer?

So, some Iranian officials think Biden is being tempted by his advisers to take advantage of the effects (meaning successes?) of the Trump pressures. Effectively continuing the failed policy of “Maximum Pressure”, as he waits for the Iranians to buckle. They don’t seem ready to buckle yet. So how is this different from the Trump approach? Which is a punishment by starvation approach that was encouraged by three of Trump’s despotic Persian Gulf pals.

So, we may have the usual schoolyard standoff: Who hit or cussed the other first? Which one preceded (that one is obvious)?

Israeli PM Netanyahu has been predicting since the 1990s that Iran is a few weeks away from making a nuclear bomb. He hasn’t been saying so lately, which in itself is an ominous silence. Some European signatories, who have spent four years urging Trump to go back to the nuclear deal, now prefer pushing Biden to adopt Trump’s policy. Predictably, the Trump policy as urged on my some Arab potentates and Netanyahu has brought Iran closer to a bomb capability than ever before. If the Iranians see that the Western powers are united in reneging on the JCPOA, they will likely have two options:

(1) buckle down to the same pressures that Trump applied, or (2) be tempted to go for the next viable alternative. The fear now is, or should be, that Biden is pushing them toward an alternative. The Iranians, if the hardliners win the presidency next summer, may contemplate the extremist and dangerous North Korean path. The latter may be used as a casus belli, pushing Biden (and the Israelis) to war. So, back to a more destructive war than the regional wars that everybody claims they want to avoid. 

That would be terrible for the Persian Gulf region and the wider Middle East region.

 

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Netanyahu and Biden and the Symbiotic Relationship…..

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The media, in the US and Israel, and in the Middle East have been speculating about the cold ties between Joe Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu. Speculation about when Joe will call Bibi. The Israeli PM is known for famously and deliberately disrespecting Democratic American officials, even before Trump. From Obama to Hillary Clinton to John Kerry. He delayed his traditional congratulatory message to Biden longer than any other world leader, then accompanied it with a message praising Donald Trump. Unusual. He knew that would not affect the overall Israeli stand in the USA. And he is right.

Fact is, Israeli-American ties have deepened over the decades, and on the American side they transcend party affiliation. It is different for the ruling Likud. It has deep symbiotic ties with the US Republican Party, rooted in a shared right-wing ideology and boosted by the American Evangelicals concentrated in the deeply Red States. To some extent one Party is is almost an extension, a branch of the other. Bibi Netanyahu is probably more influential in the GOP than any Bush ever was or can be. A friend of a friend of a friend once told me that “Bibi may be able to win a Republican primary against almost any GOP candidate whose name is not Trump“. Maybe he didn’t really believe that. Maybe.

So, this cooling of the relationship is just a partisan thing. Netanyahu can still be PM four years from now. He will no doubt root for the Republican candidate, whoever he is.

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Trump in Exile: Dragging the GOP, Cheap Parody of a Bonapartist Mirage…..

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Donald Trump will stop being President of the United States at noon on January 20th. There are rumors and speculation bout what he may do after that:

That he is so delusional he will refuse to leave the White House. It is far-fetched and he risks suffering the indignity of President Biden ordering the Secret Service to physically eject him and his family.

He can play the role of a wronged ‘legitimate’ leader, form a shadow regime in exile. His exile will most likely be in Florida (unless he opts for Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, or the Golan Heights). The Republican Party, which is now just like any other Trump Tower, wholly owned by him, will continue its amazing trajectory of intensifying sycophancy.

From his exile, he can keep the flames of ‘resistance going. I know, it sounds funny to talk about a GOP “Resistance” movement. The GOP is violently against any or all “Resistance” movements, especially in the Middle East.

In addition, he can start a media empire, as rumored now, to inundate the web, cable services and airwaves with his Manifestos. He can be like Lenin in Zurich, agitating and plotting for a revolution, either now or four years later.

If Trump knows European history, which he does not, he will compare himself to Napoleon Bonaparte in exile. At least privately, he will go Walter Mitty. He will think he is in Elba, thinking of Marshal Ney awaiting his return. Of course, Elba lead to Waterloo and eventually to Saint Helena.

Trump probably cannot conceive that he will leave next January not to Elba, but directly to Saint Helena.

(This is not a comparison, otherwise it would be a comedy, a joke. Trump has a primitive mind, perhaps street smart and cunning, but he has no sense of history. It would be hilarious to imagine him leading a Grande Armée, nor is he a creative intelligent leader. He has his mouth, a feral instinct, and a captivated GOP that is terrified of said mouth. So, I am funning you here).

And on this note,

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum