The Arab World has one completely failed state: Somalia, which is not even identifiable as a state anymore (or Arab for that matter). It has one nearly failed states: Sudan which has staved off Somalization by giving the Southerners their freedom (unlike Abraham Lincoln). Then there is Yemen. As for Yemen? I believe it will become an unidentifiable state, like Somalia, possibly with the South regaining the independence it foolishly gave away in 1990 to join the tribal North. Northern Yemen is truly in danger of falling completely apart, American drones and Saudi war planes notwithstanding.
No, Libya is not likely to become a failed state. It may try to become a failed state during the next few years, many African states that were ruled by long-term despots have headed that way. But Libya is a potentially rich country with a relatively high degree of national identity. Besides, it is too close to Europe to be allowed to fail as a state: who is going to stop all them boats?
“The German government made a Transall military transport plane available for the journey, and the mission was headed up by Hans-Joachim Otto, a state secretary in the German Economics Ministry. In Benghazi, where the rebel movement is headquartered, the group handed over aid goods and medical supplies to the city’s hospitals. But the trip was far from just a humanitarian one. The Germans also met with representatives of the Libyan transitional council and of the country’s central bank in an effort to pursue economic interests in the country. The war in Libya, of course, has not yet come to an end, and autocrat Moammar Gadhafi remains at large, likely hiding in a bunker somewhere in Tripoli. But companies from around the world, including several based in Germany, have already begun preparing for peacetime. Once reconstruction begins, business opportunities, they hope, will be plentiful — and lucrative…….. The Italian oil concern Eni, for example, is doing what it can to defend its status as the largest foreign oil producer in the country. Even before the rebels stormed the Gadhafi residence in Tripoli this week, Eni technicians had begun preparing to restart the flow of oil. And Eni has the full support of the government in Rome. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is meeting with rebel leader Mahmoud Jibril on Thursday. It is France, though, that could have the pole position when it comes to doing business with the new Libya…………….”
The Europeans lining up to get their “fair share” of the Libyan war booty. This time, not only are the Italians back, but the French as well, and the Germans, and others. Seventy years after World War II, European landmines are still killing Arabs (and Berbers) in North Africa. Now their forces are back, some of them disguised as Qataris and foreign residents of the UAE.
The fact that Libya needs “reconstruction” after only a few months of “low level” fighting indicates the dismal state of Qaddafi’s Great Libyan Socialist Jamahiriya. With huge oil reserves and revenues, and only about 5 million people, the dictator could not do even a mediocre job on the economy.
The carnage also indicates something else: the amount of destruction NATO forces have unleashed on Libya.
“Baghdad is mulling the nomination of an Iraqi candidate for the position of Arab League secretary general, a lawmaker has said. Two weeks before the Arab states choose a new secretary general to replace Amr Moussa who is leaving to contest in the presidential elections in Egypt later this year, only Qatari Abdul Rahman Al Atiyyah and Egyptian Mustafa Al Fiqi have submitted their candidacies. “We have floated the idea of selecting an Iraqi personality to head the Arab League,” Rafaa Abdul Jabbar Nooshi, member of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said. “Iraq has a number of competent personalities who can manage the Arab League,” he said, quoted by Qatar News Agency. The MP did not, however, mention any names. Iraqi political formations have nominated Eyad Allawi to replace Amr Moussa when he steps down next month…….”
This is enough to give the Saudi king Abdullah an infarct. Enough to give several absolute tribal kings a collective infarct. An Iraqi (Shi’a-appointed) secretary general of the Arab league of Despots? I expect the recently infallible (by the king) Mufti, Shaikh A Al Al Shaikh to issue one of his made-to-order fatwas making this blasphemous.
I was going to nominate Ahmad Chalabi, but that seems a bit too much. Ayad Allawi seems to be unattached these days, and he love traveling to such Arab capitals as Riyadh, Amman, Cairo (ah those were the days). Then there is the king of Bahrain…………..