Middle East Focus-Arabia Deserta

Politics of Cheap Shots, al-Maliki Worried, Allawi Almost Resigned………

2010-03-21T20:50:00Z

In another low in Iraq politics, the State of Law website of Mr. al-Maliki group states that Iyad Allawi cannot become a prime minister of Iraq according to the country's constitution. The site claims that Article 77 of the constitution stipulates that the president and prime minister of Iraq has to be born Iraqi and form two Iraqi parents. It claims that Allawi’s father was Iraqi but his mother was Lebanese. They also cite Articles 65 and 74.
I don’t know the Iraqi constitution, but this sounds like a cheap shot to me. It looks like al-Maliki is worried, rattled, although I still believe his coalition will win the most seats in parliament, and the most votes.
Still, my fatwa stands anyway: Allawi will not become prime minister. Even though now he opposes any recount.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Iraqi Voting Issues, Many hanging Chads and Dimpled Chads……..

2010-03-21T16:27:00Z

“Iraq's election commission has rejected calls from the president and prime minister for a recount of votes cast in the general election on 7 March. An election official said a recount of all votes would be impossible and was unnecessary because of checks on fraud. Earlier, President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri Maliki backed calls for a manual recount of votes. Partial results indicate a close race between Mr Maliki and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. But the long delay in announcing the full results has led to growing allegations of fraud. ………"As the president of the state, authorised to preserve the constitution and to ensure justice and absolute transparency, I demand the Independent High Electoral Commission recount the ballots manually starting from Sunday, March 21," Mr Talabani said in a statement…….”

Nobody seems able to force a recount. But I notice that only al-Maliki and Kurdish supporters want a recount. The Allawi group, for all their early protestations of irregularities, are silent about a recount. Do they know something we don't know but suspect? I, for one, am very suspicious.
And don't they have any Iraqi hanging chads or even dimpled chads?
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Lebanese Academia and Israel: Freedom or Collaboration or McCarthyism or All……..

2010-03-21T16:16:00Z

“In a town hall at the American University of Beirut earlier this month, nearly 300 in the crowd castigated Sari Hanafi, a scholar and Palestinian activist, for his role as co-editor of the book, "The Power of Inclusive Exclusion: Anatomy of Israeli Rule in the Occupied Palestinian Territories." Hanafi worked on the book with two Israeli scholars from Tel Aviv University, Adi Ophir and Michal Givoni, both of whom publicly oppose the Israeli military presence in the West Bank. Lebanese law forbids contact between its nationals and Israel…… “This open collaboration between an Israeli academic and an AUB academic is unprecedented in my 50 years of service at this university," said Tarif Khalidi, professor of Arab and Middle Eastern studies at AUB, who addressed the audience at the March 8 meeting. "I say 'open' because God knows what might be happening under the table. This is especially disturbing in a country like Lebanon, which is still in a state of war with Israel." Some have called the drive against Hanafi a McCarthy-like effort to punish a professor who defied the current Arab world orthodoxy by partnering with the enemy. …… The fight has pitted student against student....…..”
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Israel’s Tea Parties, an Israeli Tea Bagger…………..

2010-03-21T14:37:00Z

“Tourism Minister Stas Misezhnikov slammed Saturday a multi-annual aid plan for the non-Jewish sector to be debated in the cabinet on Sunday. The plan calls for roughly NIS 800 million (about $220 million) to be invested in 10 Arab communities in the next four years. "Government aid to minorities must not be granted to communities whose public leaders' loyalty lies with the State of Israel's enemies, while not being granted to communities loyal to Israel such as the Circassians, Druze, and Bedouins," the minister said. "This program is distorted and rewards disloyalty."…...…” Ynet News (Israel)
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

No More Chinese Beaver for Israel?…………

2010-03-21T14:03:00Z

No more Beaver????

“Legislation was proposed amid a public outcry, and now former sex symbol Brigitte Bardot and singer Paul McCartney have joined the campaign to make Israel the world's first fur-free country. "I would like to thank you personally for your help and support promoting the law against the commerce of fur in Israel," the French actress-turned-animal-rights activist said in a letter to members of Israel's parliament, the Knesset. Meanwhile, the former Beatle, a vegetarian for many years, wrote on his Web site: "By banning the fur trade, Israel would be providing a moral lead to those countries and showing what can be done." ……… Ninety-five percent of the country's textile products, which include fur, are imported from China……… Wild fur represents about 15 percent of the world's trade in fur…....”
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

A Bin Laden Family Feud, Family Values…………….

2010-03-21T13:55:00Z

“Omar bin Laden criticised charges by both his half-brother Khalid and from the North African branch of Al-Qaeda that Iran had mistreated Bin Laden family members living in Tehran under house arrest since fleeing Afghanistan in 2001. "From Omar bin Laden to the leader of the Al-Qaeda team in Morocco: violence only breeds more violence," he said. "I, as the son of your leader, I am telling you that this case is mine alone. I am in charge of it, I have full responsibility over all my brothers and sisters, wherever they may be. "I don't accept or agree with this kind of threat." On Friday, the SITE Intelligence Group monitoring service reported that Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb had warned the Iranian government to free bin Laden's family members. "They should know we are people of dignity, glory and honour, and we are ready to sacrifice ourselves and all that we own for Sheikh Osama and his family and for every Muslim man and woman." That followed the release of a letter from Khalid bin Laden to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei which accused the Islamic republic of harming family members. "They requested a number of times to leave Iran, only to be beaten and silenced," Khalid wrote. Omar, 29, who has condemned his father's jihadist ideology, denied those charges. "I know 100 percent that my brothers and sisters have been well treated. They have told me from their own mouths," he said…...….”

You’d think one or two, or maybe most, of them will show up on Dr, Phil, or Oprah, or Springfield, or The View, or The Daily Show to poor-mouth the others. Maybe soon. In the United States they’d be giving press conferences and counter press conferences all day, spreading it all out in the open to dry, or not.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Dreams and Frustrations of a Gulf War, Petitioning Lieberman (not Avigdor)………….

2010-03-21T13:42:00Z

“The puzzling question is: will there be a war waged against Iran. If economic sanctions fail and her capabilities get close to nuclear weapons? Iranians confidently repeat thatAmerican is incapable to wage another war, and that the international community has no choice but accept the reality of a nuclear Iran…….. But is is impossible to prepare for a major war secretly. There are too many losgistics that need to be arranged. An American newapaper recently discovered over the internet that the US military has contracted in January for 10 containers to transport munitions to Diego Garcia island, among them 287 huge underground bunket-buster depth bombs. Is this a routine move, or are we on the threshold of the biggest war in our region in a 100 years?.........”

Thus spoke a chief editor of Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat. Thye are getting frustrated on the Persian Gulf, some of them can’t delay gratification much longer. They want some kind of military strike. Maybe they should petition their congressmen and congresswomen. There is always Joe Lieberman.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

In Israel: Ghetto and Counter-Ghetto……………

2010-03-21T13:32:00Z

“But Natalie and Weisman Zakai say the past three years – since the Jewish couple offered to rent their home to Bedouin friends, Ahmed and Khalas Tarabin – have been a living hell. “I have always loved Israel,” said Mrs Zakai, 43. “But to see the depth of the racism of our neighbours has made me question why we live in this country.” Three of the couple’s six dogs have been mysteriously poisoned; Mrs Zakai’s car has been sprayed with the words ”Arab lover” and the windows smashed; her three children in school are regularly taunted and bullied by other pupils; and a collection of vintage cars in the family’s yard has been set on fire in what police say was an arson attack. To add to these indignities, the Zakais have spent three years and thousands of dollars battling through the courts against the elected officials of their community of Nevatim, in Israel’s southern Negev desert, who have said they are determined to keep the Tarabins from moving in…….”
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Gulf Financial Accounting Shenanigans, Lehman-Style………….

2010-03-21T13:23:00Z

“Accounting practices similar to those used by Lehman Brothers to mask bad assets before its collapse are also being adopted by Gulf companies, auditors say. Now regional governments are being urged to clamp down on companies that are misleading investors by keeping assets that could be responsible for losses off their balance sheets. At the same time, local auditors are facing increased scrutiny after a series of corporate scandals that have hurt investor confidence from Damman to Dubai. Auditors accuse some Gulf companies of flouting book-keeping rules to avoid disclosing transactions involving shares and sukuk, or Islamic bonds, to shareholders…….. After the financial crisis, concern is building about the accounting standards used by Gulf companies. “In this part of the world, there are many types of arrangements where the derecognition rules come into play,” said a GCC accountant who asked to remain anonymous……….”

Why am I not surprised to read this report?
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Persian Gulf Satellite Wars: NileSat, ArabSat, IranSat, QatarSat…………….

2010-03-21T13:14:00Z

“Egyptian media sources report that Iran and Qatar will soon launch a joint satellite that will threaten the future of Nilesat. The reports say fear of this new satellite springs from the fact that it will be on the same orbit as Nilesat and Arabsat. Cairo Bureau Chief of Alalam Television that both Nilesat and Arabsat stopped broadcasting last year said that that the new Iranian satellite will be better techbologically and cheaper……..” Alalam TV (Iran)

I noted earlier that this might happen, that blocking a media outlet would only force it to find other means of broadcasting or start its own satellite. If this does happen and if as reported Qatar will be involved, that may pose a competition to the two Arab satellites. Qatar may be worried that its own very popular Aljazeera Network may be targeted for blocking (it is probably even more hated by the other oligarchies than Iran’s Alalam).
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

"Rashomon" of West Bank Settlements: Two Views, Two Reports………….

2010-03-20T23:12:00Z

The Voice of America (and the UN) version of the settlement issue:
“U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visited the West Bank and got a first-hand look at nearby Jewish settlements. Accompanied by Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, Ban was able to see the red-roofed settlement of Givat Ze'ev, which is home to 11,000 Israelis. Further in the distance were Jewish neighborhoods in disputed East Jerusalem. Speaking at a news conference in the West Bank town of Ramallah, Ban was unequivocal. "The world has condemned Israel's settlement expansion plans in East Jerusalem. Let us be clear, all settlement activities is illegal anywhere in occupied territory and this must stop," he said……”

The New York Times version of the settlement issue:
“The 1,600 units in East Jerusalem constituted the latest of several steps that the Americans considered problematic. The Palestinians felt exposed and the Americans were furious. The Israelis, by contrast, say that while Mr. Netanyahu offered confidence-building measures for Palestinians in the West Bank, he made no concessions on Jerusalem. There are dozens of projects in the pipeline in Jerusalem, they said, and he has no intention of slowing down or interfering with them. Whether he will quietly do so anyway, allowing each side the chance to go on claiming it won, remains to be seen……..”
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Octogenarian Arab Leaders, President “Overflowing Peace” of Palestine…….

2010-03-20T19:42:00Z

“The state of health of Arab leaders is not well. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak is convalescing from surgery to remove a ‘growth’ in his stomach. The Palestinian president ‘slips’ on the floor of his bathroom and decides not to return to Ramallah, at least for now. As for the age of dotage of other Arab leaders, no need to explain that here, for a majority of them are in their late seventies or eighties. The Egyptian and Palestinian presidents have one thing in common in that neither has appointed a vice president. The first one wants to hand power and the country to his son, the other may be thinking about it but has no time and no state to hand over, besides there is a successor ready in the form of Salam Fayyadh……..” al-Quds al-Arabi

By these Middle East standards, the radical trouble-makers like al-Assad, Ahmadinejad, and Nassrallah are babies in their forties. As are some of the suspects of Iraq like al-Maliki and al-Sadr.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Unelected Nancy Pelosi of Arabia, A Potemkin Parliament of Bureaucrats…………

2010-03-20T17:05:00Z

“Members of the Interim Arab Parliament have elected a member of the Saudi Consultative Council (appointed by the king) Mr. A al-Shammari as Deputy Speaker of the Arab Parliament. This happened during the first session of 2010 which meets in Damascus. After being elected, Al-Shammari expressed hi deep appreciation for members of the Parliament for their trust. He exp;ained that after four years of its establishment has reached an advanced stage where it is a permanent parliament, and is looked ta as such by Arab leaders……..”

Are they serious? This man has been appointed by the King to an appointed advisory body, and he is elected deputy speaker. They have no elections in Saudi Arabia: not for king, not for parliament, not even for kindergarten student body president (they don’t encourage politics even at that age, fearing it may become a habit). They don’t have elections for anything, not even for official dog catcher or goat herder. But then again, he is as good as anyone else for the job: almost all members of the Interim Arab parliament are either appointed by their dictators and oligarchs or selected though rigged elections. With perhaps about three exceptions where they have nearly genuine elections, and the Arab leaders would like to correct that.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

A Day in the Life of Ahmadinejad………….

2010-03-20T16:39:00Z

Wanted to see what Ahmadinejad is up to in Iran these days. Haven’t heard from him in days. His official website headlined the following items:

“President suggests OIC chief to appoint female deputy ……..”

“President sees no limit to expansion of Iran-Albania relations …….”

“President says he expects MPs to help gov’t by approving bills……..”

“President receives Colombian ambassador…..”

At that point I decided to quit while ahead…….
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

The Coming Shift in OPEC Balance of Power?.................

2010-03-20T16:28:00Z

“When the world's top oil-producing countries sat down today in Vienna, there was a new 800-pound gorilla joining them in the room. It's not a rising oil price, which now hovers at $80 per barrel; nor is it the U.S. Federal Reserve meetings, where governors will likely leave interest rates near flat. No, the 800-pound gorilla is far closer to home for most members of OPEC: It's Iraq. If Baghdad's own projections are to be believed, Iraq could match Saudi Arabia's daily crude output of 10 million to 12 million barrels within the next seven years, up from just 2.5 million barrels today. That means price stability, OPEC's sine qua non, could go from being Saudi Arabia's solo prerogative to a shared franchise of two states: one an entrenched monarchy, the other an unruly democracy with an uncertain future. And since Iraq held a successful tender for new oil exploration work in December, the country's oil minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, has made it clear that Baghdad will ramp up production regardless of any restraints agreed upon by the world's oil cartel……… "The Iraqis are saying, 'Look, we're not going to be on par with Iran; we have to be equal with Saudi Arabia,'" says Raad Alkadiri, an Iraq expert at PFC Energy, a Washington-based consulting firm. "They note how OPEC has benefited from the fact that Iraq has not produced to its potential, and given its reconstruction demands, its need of revenue must be acknowledged."……….”

I wrote here some weeks ago about the future of Iraqi petroleum output. Iraq produces about 2.5 million bpd, but it has reserves that are close to those of Saudi Arabia. They also have years of low production (1990-2010) to make up for. OPEC will probably be completely changed with a new Iraqi production potential. This leaves that other elephant or gorilla in the room: Iran, whose oil fields have been relatively neglected from years of war and Western boycott. Within the next ten years almost certain increases in OPEC production (only partly offset by decline in other countries) and energy saving technology should alter the demand for crude. Then there is the potential for explosive demand from Asia. The demand and supply curves will shift in interesting ways.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

An Imaginary Victory in Iraq, Now for the Math on the Ground and the Religion ……

2010-03-20T15:51:00Z

The media is the West has been euphoric over what they term a possible “win” by the Iraqiya alliance of Allawi. Major Saudi media went so far as to claim that al- Maliki and Allawi now will control the same number of seats in parliament. Some Saudi media self-servingly called it a political”earthquake”. All this is quite incorrect, even though the votes seem to be moving back toward al-Maliki for now. Parliamentary seats have less to do with total popular votes in Iraq than most people assume. They are based on a complex system of vote distribution among the provinces. Al-Maliki will end up with the most popular votes and members of parliament, which means he will have first dibs in forming a government. It is healthier for Iraq if a new prime minister is chosen, but Maliki, in true Arab fashion, will not give up easily.

Allawi is a former Baathist and has strong autocratic leanings, possibly more than the others, but that is okay because he will not be selected. Whether al-Maliki succeeds or not does not depend on Allawi, but on the Iraqi National Alliance of Sadrists and ISCI, and on the Kurds. Essentially the mostly Shi’s groups and the Kurds will determine the outcome. This is what the electoral math in Iraq tells me: all the other public speculation about Allawi is pure noise and wishful thinking.

Allawi himself has been trying to encourage the image of a victory that simply does not exist. He even took the take in his foreign travels and penned an editorial in the major Saudi media Thursday about his vision for Iraq, a vision he will not have the chance to see through according to my fatwa last week. He mostly wants an Iraq in the mold of the surrounding Arab authoritarian regimes, although he does not say so directly. It is a message directed more at the Saudis than the Iraqis. Meanwhile Allawi is in a political bind: the longer cabinet negotiations continue, the longer al-Maliki remains prime minister.

If there was areal winner it was Muqtada al-Sadr, who will have more power than Allawi’s loose alliance to influence the government formation. Which indicates, unfortunately, that Iraqis of all sects will have to put up with more religious influence.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

A Legacy of European Wars: Our Backyard, Our Limbs…………

2010-03-20T15:43:00Z

“The battle of El Alamein was a turning point in World War II but the unexploded munitions it left behind continue to kill and maim the local population…… In 1942, their descendants were still grazing animals, this time in the Sahara, as they witnessed the massed armies of Montgomery and Rommel fight out the pivotal World War II battle of El Alamein. Today however, Egyptian Bedouin are not merely onlookers but reluctant combatants in a battle against death and injury in their ancestral lands. The Allied and Axis forces are long gone from North Africa but their lethal legacy remains - millions of rusting landmines, bombs, mortars and artillery shells lying in wait for the unwary shepherds and their children…… Today there are no reliable maps of the minefields because their deadly crop constantly shifts in the desert winds. You cannot see the mines buried in the sand. When the Bedouin discover them, the hard way - ploughing them up in their olive groves or digging them up as they scrape a pit for a campfire - all they can do is mark the spot with a cairn of stones to warn those who follow……...”

I used to read about the landmines of the Western Sahara when I was a child. I was fascinated by them, and by Montgomery and Rommel. They are still killing people (as are occasional mines in Kuwait, Southeast Asia, and other places), as are cluster bombs. They will still be killing hapless people another generation or two from now.
Ban thefucking landmines and the cluster bombs.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Where the Boys Are: the Pontiff in Denial, First Lady of the Vatican……………

2010-03-20T15:29:00Z

“Confronting a sex abuse scandal spreading across Europe, Pope Benedict XVI on Saturday apologized directly to victims and their families in Ireland, expressing “shame and remorse” and saying “your trust had been betrayed and your dignity has been violated.” His message, in a long-awaited, eight-page pastoral letter to Irish Catholics, seemed couched in strong and passionate language. But it did not refer directly to immediate disciplinary action beyond sending a special apostolic delegation to investigate unspecified dioceses and religious congregations in Ireland. Moreover, it was, as the Vatican said it would be, focused particularly on the situation in Ireland, even as the crisis has widened among Catholics in Austria, the Netherlands and in the pope’s native Germany……. Nowhere in the letter did Benedict address the responsibility of the Vatican itself. Many victims’ groups have criticized the Vatican for not recognizing the depth and scope of the abuse crisis sooner. Nor did he use the term punishment, or spell out any consequences for clergy or bishops who had not upheld canon or civil law……….”

Cherchez la femme, as the French are always doing avidly (instead of les garcons) .
So are our shaikhs and mullahs: they marry, they marry young and often, and up to four (they should stick to one). They still aspire to paradise and all the promised extra “perks”, but they mostly keep their hands off the flock’s kids. No need to ogle young boys or girls (even if it is partly a self-selecting group).
So, as a non-Catholic I say let the clergy marry, let human nature take its course, and they will not need to become criminals, as many of them apparently have, from North America to Germany. Nothing in any Bible old or new says a priest should be celibate in the flesh even while he certainly is not in mind, and obviously they are not. Let them marry, let there be a First Lady of the Vatican. Let all the begetting (and begatting) begin.
I know it will only happen when pigs literally put on lipstick and fly.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

Sahara Jihadists Tax the Magic Dragon but Puffing it is Haram………….

2010-03-20T00:55:00Z

“Les islamistes armés escorteraient des convois de transport de cocaïne pour financer le terrorisme. La drogue est haram («illicite» pour les djihadistes, mais rien n'interdit à al-Qaida au Maghreb islamique (Aqmi) de tirer profit des nouvelles routes africaines de la cocaïne pour diversifier ses revenus. Tel est le constat dressé depuis quelques mois par la plupart des experts occidentaux ainsi que par Antonio Maria Costa, le directeur de l'Office des Nations unies contre la drogue et le crime (ONUDC). «Dans le Sahel, les terroristes puisent dans les ressources du trafic de drogue pour financer leurs opérations, acheter des équipements et payer leurs troupes», explique le patron de la lutte antidrogue des Nations unies. «En Mauritanie, plusieurs enquêtes judiciaires ont révélé l'implication de militants salafistes dans des affaires de trafic de stupéfiants», précise Isselmou Ould Moustapha, le rédacteur en chef de Tahalil, un hebdomadaire mauritanien indépendant………”

There were no drugs that I know of in Ancient Arabia. At least I don't recall coming across any. Hejazis did not puff the magic dragon nor did they snort before Islam. The Book and Hadith say nothing about grass, coke, or even opium. They are banned legally nowadays, and in recent years the ulema, the clergy, have fallen in line and declared them haram. However, the idea idea that profiting from drugs is okay even if using the drugs is haram is nonsense. Alcohol is haram and so are profits, taxes, or money extorted from it.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email

An Iranian Warning to Cheney (Dick)……………

2010-03-19T20:21:00Z

“A former Iranian vice president and prominent reform activist convicted of spreading propaganda against the ruling clerical establishment has begun a one-year prison sentence, a close relative said Friday. An appeals court upheld Hossein Marashi's conviction and sentence on Wednesday, one of many court rulings against activists and opposition figures rounded up in the turmoil triggered by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in June. The prosecutions have dealt a major blow to a protest movement that was already hard to sustain with security forces delivering a punishing response at each attempt to rally support on the streets……..”

A warning to Cheney?
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email