Monthly Archives: July 2013

Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Iran, US Foreign Policy

Tale of Two Military Coups: Where is Morsi? Where is Mossadeq?……….

      

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August 1953. A military coup was staged in Iran against elected prime minister Dr. Mohammed Mossadeq. The coup was engineered and plotted by the CIA and British MI6. It also started with protests and riots on the street, all paid for by the two major Western powers of that time. The Issues? Mossadeq had rightly nationalized Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (later became NIOC and British Petroleum BP). The British Empire wanted him punished for nationalizing Iranian oil, and the American cousins were convinced by the Brits that Mossadeq was some secret communist. That was the basis for Operation Ajax (the American name for it). How stupid can you get? The Shah had flown to Rome before the coup, as part of the plot. Later the Shah’s daughter Princess Shahnaz (his daughter from Egyptian Princess Fawzia) was reportedly married to the son of General Zahedi who led the coup. Mossadeq was arrested, jailed, then spent the rest of his life under house arrest.
July 2013. Now in Egypt. It is not the CIA or MI6 anymore that buys or tries to buy the military. The petroleum potentates of the Persian Gulf are richer than the CIA and MI6 combined, in terms of free resources that do not require budgetary approval. The ruling families of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have deep pockets. They tried early to buy the Egyptian revolution of 2011 by offering billions of dollars in aid. When the elections went ahead and the Muslim Brotherhood (M won, the aid money never showed up.
Now the military coup staged by the remnants of the Mubarak regime (his feloul) gives the shaikhs and princes another chance at Egypt. The feloul that staged or helped the coup in Egypt are: (1) the military of Mubarak led by General Sisi, (2) the court system of Mubarak’s appointees, (3) Al Azhar led and staffed by Mubarak appointees, and (4) the formidable government bureaucracy staffed for 30 years by Mubarak. The MB had no chance. Two other groups aided and abetted: (a) the liberal secularists of Tamarod and (b) the Coptic Church leadership. But these two groups will most likely be left out of real influence in favor of the Salafists who opportunistically betrayed their MB allies and joined the coup-makers. Morsi, like Mossadeq is in prison and may his enemies no doubt wish for him to spend the rest of his life under house arrest.
Egypt did not have a shah to return to power. It has the military which has been in power for decades. The military has asserted its role as the supreme leader of Egypt. Whoever is elected will be second or third banana. End of the story? Unlikely, given the political base of the Islamists in Egypt. I can only see turmoil and trouble in the months ahead.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Britain, Tony Blair, US Foreign Policy

Deep Throat: Tony Blair to Parachute Behind Enemy Lines in Syria and Iran, Not in Fallujah or Baghdad………….

      

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Against popular demand, at least my popular demand, Tony Blair refuses to just vanish. Once in a while he crawls out of whatever rock he happens to be under and makes some stupid policy recommendation.
Now he has called for the Western powers to support the Egyptian military grab of power in Cairo, elections be damned. He has also called, again and again, for Western intervention in the Syrian civil war, starting with a no-fly zone. The goal being to liberate one side of Syria, just as they liberated Iraq and Libya. Before that he has repeatedly called for a new Anglo-American war in the Middle East, against Iran. The goal being to liberate Iranians from their regime and from themselves. No mention of liberating Saudi Arabia or Bahrain or the domains of any of his Central Asian paymasters.
My mysterious source, wherever the hell Tony is hiding, tells me that Tony was offered the option of being dropped by parachute behind Syrian regime lines, behind enemy lines, to soften them up. She reports that he has declined, claiming that the oil potentates who keep him may not be agreeable to that. Besides, he claims he speaks neither Arabic nor Persian, which is odd given how much he opines on our countries and on what we really want, or should want.
She, my source whom I shall never call Deep Throat, also tells me that some wags have suggested that as an alternative, Tony be dropped inside Fallujah or Sadr City in Iraq, well behind liberated enemy lines. They said he ought to feel fine and comfy among the people that he has helped liberate. She claims Tony has not responded yet to this latest reasonable proposal.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC

Saudi and UAE Potentates Bidding for Control of Egypt, Support for SCAF Militicracy………..

      

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“Those Egyptians who rejoiced in Cairo last week forget that the same police who brutally attacked anti-Mubarak protesters in 2011 and then disappeared from the streets returned instantly when the possibility of reinstating the old regime presented itself. And they showed great competence in brutally repressing those they disagree with. Those same rejoicing Egyptians forget that after the 2011 revolution, the army thanked the Egyptian people and told them to go home, leaving the country’s government to an unelected junta. Now, these same rejoicing masses have given the military an excuse to stage a coup and decide the fate of the country. No country did more to undermine Mr. Morsi’s government and celebrate its fall than Saudi Arabia. The Saudis understand that the threat that the Egyptian democratic experiment once posed to Saudi autocracy is gone……………….”

It seems there is a Gulf GCC bidding war to buy Egypt:
This morning the potentates of the UAE announced a $3 billion aid for Egypt. That is not new: they promised the same amount in 2011 but never delivered after Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood won the presidency. They were bribing the military SCAF to forget about holding elections.
This morning the Saudi potentates also announced a $5 billion aid package for Egypt. They had also promised something like that two years ago but never delivered after Morsi won the presidency.
The Qataris are sulking and the shaikhs of Bahrain have not announced how much they will be bidding for Cairo, yet. The beauty of it is that neither the Bin Zayed Al Nahayan (UAE) nor the Al Saud need to have their Senate or Congress vote for the money. Mainly because neither has an elected legislature. Which exactly how they want Egypt and every other Arab country to remain.
It looks like the Mubarak days may be back. Now that is democracy we can all live with.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Iran, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Ten Years of Syria? Ten Years of Lebanon? Ten Years of Iran? a War in Europe?………….

      

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“The United States faces “a 10-year issue” in Syria as it weighs how deeply it wants to get involved the country’s civil war, the top U.S. military officer warned in an interview that aired Sunday. Army Gen. Martin Dempsey told CNN’s State of the Union that the conflict is entwined in a regional issue that is now spilling over into both Lebanon and Iraq, and those underlying causes “will persist for 10 years.” “It is related — not exclusively — but related to a competition at best and a conflict at worse between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam………………”

Ten years of Syria, ten years of Lebanon. Does that mean Syria and Lebanon will replace Iraq and Afghanistan as the battlefields of the coming generation? The next mandatory acceptable war in Muslim lands? What about the war on Iran? Will it come after Lebanon and Syria or will it be waged during the same ten years?
Can you please please find some other region to devastate for a change? How about Europe? Europeans are responsible for all this mess, from way back during their empire days. Until the end of WW II. Start anew war in Europe for a change.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Syria

Prince Bandar now Syrian Opposition Leader, Ki-Moon Wants Ceasefire While Fasting Ramadan: War is Deception………

      

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“War is deception” (Alleged) Hadith by the Prophet Mohammed

“Syrian rebels have asked for a truce in the besieged city of Homs to observe the holy month of Ramadan, which begins on Tuesday. The new head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition, Ahmad Jarba, revealed the offer as he gave his first interview since his election on Saturday. There has been no indication that President Bashar al-Assad’s government would be ready to accept a cease-fire. Sunni Muslim rebels in the city 90 miles (140 km) north of Damascus have been suffering an onslaught of ground and air attacks. They have been struggling to hold onto territory since the militant group Hezbollah joined forces with Assad’s troops. Control of the city is being fiercely contested, as it is strategically positioned between the Syrian capital, army bases on the coast, and strongholds in neighbouring Lebanon. Jarba said: “We are staring at a real humanitarian disaster in Homs. Assad, whose military machine was on the verge of defeat, has been propped up by Iran and its Hezbollah proxy.” The new rebel leader has close links to Saudi Arabia……………..”

The real Syrian National Coalition leader is now Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Al-Saud, chief of Saudi Intelligence. To say that Al Jarba has “close links” to Saudi Arabia is the understatement of the summer: he is a Saudi agent. He also has some tribal (Shammar) roots inside Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The tribal angle is very important, now and possibly for the future when they stir other pots.
This newly-appointed tribal pro-Saudi chief of some of the Syrian opposition has asked for a ceasefire until his forces are supplied with new advanced weapons by their Saudi masters. Mr. Al Jarba is awaiting Assad’s response to a ceasefire in Ramadan. Even Ban Ki-Moon of the UN got in the act: Moony, not a Muslim, not a Sunni or Shi’a as far as I know, called for a ceasefire during the “Holy” month of Ramadan. I wonder if, like Mr. Obama, Moony is a secret Muslim of the Salafi denomination.
Al Assad is awaiting the eve of Ramadan before deciding to reject this transparent offer by Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Bin Al Yamama, or maybe he thinks it is beneath contempt. By the time Assad decides, this leader may be gone, replaced with yet another one.
And to celebrate the selection of their new impotent leader, the sixth of seventh in one year, the so-called prime minister of the opposition ‘government’ in Turkey, Ghassan Hito has promptly resigned.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt

Egyptian Maturity with Xenophobia: Blaming Obama and Patterson…….

      

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Many Egyptians, on both sides, who should know better are playing a silly “point the finger game”. Each side is blaming the other and foreigners who are supposedly plotting with it. Each side claims the Americans prefer and are plotting with the other side.
Egypt is some 5,000 years old. It is older than the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the GCC states, Russia and a few other countries combined. Even adding Iran to the bunch will not change that. They are a very mature nation. So they should stop the political xenophobia and blaming foreigners. They should stop pointing the finger at Obama or U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson or the Saudis or the Turks or the Iranians or even Israel. Just follow an independent policy instead of burning foreign flags and effigies.
They are the masters of their own fate. Well, the real masters of their fate, the military, are part of Egypt.

Genug, basta, assez, bass, khalas, kifaya…………
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, UAE

UAE High-Level Delegation Seeks a Victory March in Cairo………..

      

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Speaking of Dummies books, Arab media report that the UAE is planning to send a “high-level” delegation to Egypt. Somehow the shaikhs seem to think Egyptians have plenty of time for social visits in between riots, street battles, and trying to form a government.
There are conflicting reports as to who will lead this high-level delegation or whether they will be carrying sacks of cash. One of my Abu Dhabi sources claims it may be headed by chief of Dubai police and shadow foreign minister of the UAE former Staff Sergeant Dhahi Khalfan. She reports that Khalfan believes his tweets helped trigger the anti-Morsi protests and the military putsch that overthrew the Muslim brotherhood. She reports the delegation aims to set up tents in Tahrir in a show of solidarity for the military and the overthrow of Morsi. Another source insists one of the ruling Bin Zayed Al Nahayan brothers will head the delegation. The shaikhs, she reports, may land at Cairo wearing General Al Sisi t-shirts.
My other Cairo source reports that Egyptians are not excited about this UAE delegation. Some of them think the Abu Dhabi shaikhs are in a hurry to march in their own victory parade in Cairo. Others think they are trying to rub it in the Qatari wound, adding insult to injury. Some say it might be a message to the Saudis or the Iranians, or both. Others wonder if General Ahmed Shafiq, the old Mubarak crony who advises the Al Nahayan (not sure WTF on what) will be part of the delegation, if the shaikhs will nominate him for president of Egypt.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt

An Egyptian Bestseller Book: The Presidency for Dummies……

      

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I saw the Twitter timeline of Egypt’s military-appointed Interim President Adly Mansoor (@Adlymansoor). I read some of the tweets, and looked deeply at his picture, well as deeply as possible in this case. Trying to see into his soul, such as it is. I suspect it may be a parody account, at least for the sake of Egypt I hope it is a parody account. I believe the photo is not a parody, alas it is real.
Still, I have seen the guy on television, so I started to wonder if there is a book titled “The Presidency for Dummies“. You know the series: Cooking for Dummies, Math for Dummies, XHTML for Dummies, Eating for Dummies, etc. Anyway, if there is such a book as “The Presidency for Dummies”: I suggest that he read it, I also wish Mohammed Morsi had read it one year ago.
Wait, I just remembered another gem. Egypt is in another unusual situation: it now has two deposed presidents both of them awaiting trial, so far. Before the end of this year there may be three of four deposed presidents awaiting trial. I suggest that the book “The Presidency for Dummies” be assigned reading for all Egyptian politicians, nay for all activists from all parties.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, GCC, Syria, Weapons deals

Of MANPADS and Syrian Salafis and Gulf Potentates……….

      

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“The main conduit runs from Turkey into northern Syria, where the rebels control swathes of land, including all the main border crossings. Large shipments of arms come mainly from Qatar, which flies in weapons from Libya, an ally that was plentifully supplied by the Qataris during the uprising two years ago against Muammar Qaddafi. Turkish intelligence agents accompany the weapons into liberated parts of Syria, to be handed over to chosen groups, such as Liwa al-Tawheed, a large one active around Aleppo. The arms are distributed down the chain. Rebel commanders say Turkey’s fairly open-door policy also lets arms provided by private donors be smuggled in. Some come from Libyan revolutionaries, others from rich Salafist sheikhs in the Gulf. A black market functions energetically, too. That may explain some of the sophisticated anti-tank missiles seen in rebel hands. The New York Times has reported that Qatar has supplied some man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), despite American pleas that they should not.………………”

Funny: these weapons, the MANPADS are not manufactured in Qatar of Saudi Arabia. They are made in the West, mainly the USA, and sold to these potentates normally with restrictions on their re-export. So, if they abuse their weapons, break their contracts, just stop selling it to them. You’d think at least The Economist knows that, even if the Western governments did not.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Islam, Islam and Elections, Religion

Imams, Potentates, Generals, and Scoundrels………

      

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What is all this with “Imams” these days? Nowadays it seems Muslim Imams are coming out of the woodwork. Suddenly I found out a few weeks ago that Shaikh Yusuf Al Qaradawi is calling himself Imam on his website. Now. More recently, they are calling the Shaikh of Al Azhar the Imam, nay the Grand Imam no less, of Al Azhar. Ali Al Sistani in Najaf does not yet call himself Grand Imam, and I hope he does not. Nor does the Saudi Mufti Shaikh Al, yet. but It is probably coming.

Historically and traditionally anyone who leads people in prayer, prays in front of them, is called Imam. That is what the Arabic “Imam” word means, someone who leads in prayer. It can imply wisdom and experience, but obviously not necessarily so. Even Generalissimo Al Sisi of Egypt can be called Imam one of these days if he leads people in prayer. He just might do that someday if things get tough in Cairo. Dr. Mohamed Morsi never did and we know where he is now. Mr. Erdogan of Turkey has not taken that plunge yet. Bashar Al Assad would never consider it: he knows it won’t work in Syria.
 
This “Imam” business is becoming a fad. Soon the former Shaikh of Bahrain, now self-styled King, will start calling himself Imam. Or maybe the prime minister will. King Abdullah may start calling himself Imam, although he does not lead in prayer. No, not Abdullah of Jordan, the other Abdullah. It will be a problem in the UAE: the rulers of the seven emirates can’t all be Imams. Most likely one of the Al Nahayan brothers. I was just thinking of the goateed Saad Hariri of Lebanon and…………never mind.

Cheers
mhg

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