Middle East Focus: Iran Rejects European Timetable for Sanctions, Vanuatu vs. India………

Arabia Deserta

Iran Rejects European Timetable for Sanctions, Vanuatu vs. India………

Rattlesnake Ridge

BFF

"After the EU oil ban against Iran, members of the Iranian parliament finalized a draft bill on cutting the country's oil exports to the European states in retaliation for the EU move. "The bill has 4 articles, including one which states that the Islamic Republic of Iran will cut all oil exports to the European states until they end their oil sanctions against the country," Vice-Chairman of the parliament's Energy Commission Nasser Soudani told FNA on Saturday. Elaborating on the other parts of the draft bill, he said another article requires the government to stop imports of goods from those countries........."

Last week the European Union voted to boycott Iranian oil, starting next summer. The reason for the delay was not to give the Iranians time to adjust. No, they set after June as the date in order to give certain European nations that rely heavily on Iranian oil, like Greece and Italy, time to adjust to other sources. Then there are existing contracts that have to expire. They also did it to give the Saudis time to help the Western sanctions by producing more crude to make up for Iranian outpost boycotted by the West. I wrote a post on the Saudi role here. I also touched upon it again last week here, among other posts on the subject.

Now the Iranians are apparently not content to play the game by European (and American) rules. They may be planning to be inconsiderate to Europe’s economic troubles. They are planning to cut oil export to these European nations much earlier than summer, long before the date the European were planning to boycott Iranian oil. Now the Europeans and the US administration are worrying about the impact on the world economy.

Is this a case of the Iranians cutting their noses (too soon) in order to spite their faces? This will also have negative effects on the Iranian economy, in the sense of cutting their exports and revenues sooner, but it will have the effect of raising crude prices. The Iranians apparently think that the short-term negative impact on Europe may be much worse than on the Iranians. Since the EU 'decision' is not final but subject to review in May, the mullahs may be trying to split the Europeans into two camps.
India, Turkey, and China will not abide by the Western sanctions. The Japanese and possibly the Koreans may ask Obama to be exempted. That leaves the United States, Europe, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel. Wait, I forgot the Methodist strongholds of Samoa and Fiji and Vanuatu.

This is not to say the sanctions will not bite Iran. They will bite the people, but they may not impact as quickly as was hoped for by the Obama administration. Not enough to make Ahmadinejad (or his boss the ayatollah) cry “uncle”. At least not for a while. They are not even keeping their real target (in America), the Likud and the decisive Israeli lobby, happy.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com