Middle East Focus: (1) Arab Civil Wars: What about Syria? a Western-Saudi Mandate?..............

Arabia Deserta

(1) Arab Civil Wars: What about Syria? a Western-Saudi Mandate?..............

Rattlesnake Ridge

BFF

"Activists said at least 10 people died in the offensive, among 32 killed Sunday across Syria as the government steps up its efforts to crush what is now, unmistakably, an armed revolt. In one indicator that those who had once engaged in overwhelmingly peaceful protests now are fighting back, the official news agency, SANA, reported the funerals Sunday of 23 soldiers and police killed in the violence, as well as an attack on a bus in the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya in which six soldiers died.............."
Syria is rapidly changing from a country of massive protests against the regime to a country in a state of civil war. Casualties among security and armed forces are mounting, a sure sign of an opposition that is armed and shooting back. The opposition is seeking Western help, just like Iraq and Libya, to get rid of the regime. The Syrian National Council, is now putting all its eggs in the Saudi (and Qatari) basket to convince the Americans and the Europeans to intervene. This in turn makes it easier for the “other side” in the Middle East divide to support the Assad regime with weapons and intelligence. The "other side" does not mean just Iran; there is also Russia which has had close relations with the Syrian Ba’ath since long before the Iranian Revolution of 1979, since the party first came to power in 1963.

So the Ba'ath regime will not give up power, not yet. What is in store for Syria is either:
(1) an unlikely national compromise (national comprises have never worked in an Arab country before and they are unlikely to work now), or
(2) Western intervention which won’t be as easy as in Libya, given the state of Syrian armed forces and its access to foreign sources, as well as the regime's security services, or
(3) a messy civil war between Syrian factions, with active foreign help.

The ideal solution is for Assad and his regional and international “friends” and his regional and international “enemies” to make a deal about Syria, then for the Assad regime to leave in favor of …. who the hell knows what.

Even with a solution pulled out of someone's hat, Syria may evade one civil war to slide toward another. The opposition is not a homogeneous or like-minded group. It has some secular elements and former regime worthies, but it is dominated by Islamists: Muslim Brothers (a large faction of which is pro-Saudi) and Salafis (always pro-Saudi). There is plenty of money in both Iran and Saudi Arabia to finance another proxy war for a long time, unfortunately.

Should they bring the French Mandate back? That is what many in the Syrian opposition and even among the Islamists seem to be seeking. A Western mandate overseen by the al-Saud dynasty. Now that reassures me that the "new" Syria will be truly democratic.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com