Middle East Focus: On Iranian Crude, Oil Markets, and Leaky Principled EU Sanctions………….

Arabia Deserta

On Iranian Crude, Oil Markets, and Leaky Principled EU Sanctions………….

Rattlesnake Ridge

BFF

“Demand is growing for Iranian crude oil in Asian and African markets after the EU's fresh decision on banning oil imports from Iran. Iran is currently supplying 100% of Sri Lanka's oil needs, 51% of Turkey, 25% of South Africa, 14% of Greece, 13% of Italy and Spain, 11% of India and China and 10% of Japan and South Korea's oil demands. The statistical figures of Iran's oil exports proves that the US and EU oil embargo against Iran has little or no impact on demand for Iran's oil in global markets. The growing demand for Iran's oil also shows that EU sanctions will leave no results but growth in global oil prices since India, China and South Africa have already demanded an increase in oil imports from Iran. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, India's biggest buyer of Iranian crude, announced earlier this month that it has not cut purchase of Iranian oil supplies………………” Fars News Agency

The Iranians tend to exaggerate some of these developments, and they have an odd way of relating developments to each other (in terms of cause and effect). Of course growth of Asian demand for Iranian oil is not related directly to European threats. Yet they are probably right in some other ways here.
The Europeans will switch to other suppliers next summer, mainly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, pending a review in late spring. The Turks, the Chinese, the Indians, and some others will remain importers of Iranian oil, but may demand discounts for their defiance. The Japanese and Koreans will go along with the Western boycott, but may ask the Obama administration for exemptions, which they will get. The European boycott is not a done deal, not yet. It also depends on the state of the ‘poorer’ European economies by next spring: if they are in trouble or anemic, then they may modify their threat. A very principled European position indeed, wouldn’t you say?
In summary: there is no way that Iranian oil and gas exports can be shut down without massive and sustained military action by the West.
Unless the UAE potentates decide to deploy some of their newly ordered JDAM bunker busters against Iranian oil installations. (I have also wondered WTF do they need these massive bunker busters for: they are purely an attack weapon. Now I think I know).
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com