Middle East Focus: On World Bank, the Iranian Economy, and Western Sanctions……..

Arabia Deserta

On World Bank, the Iranian Economy, and Western Sanctions……..

Rattlesnake Ridge

BFF

“Despite the introduction of international sanctions and ripple effects from the global financial crisis, rising oil prices and a good crop helped to support the economy, the Washington-based financial body said. With a reference to the subsidy reform plan which went into effect in Iran in December 2010, the World Bank said, “A revision to the system of subsidies and cash transfers to better balance reimbursements and fiscal accounts has been looked upon favorably by outside analysts. Iran has made important efforts to reform its income support system away from subsidies and toward better targeted social safety nets, and this has brought down the pace of prices.” U.S. President Barack Obama signed into law a defense funding bill that imposes sanctions on financial institutions dealing with the Central Bank of Iran on December 31, 2011 with the aim of hampering Iran’s crude oil exports. The European Union has also reached a preliminary agreement to introduce an oil embargo against Iran……....” Mehr News Agency

The Western sanctions are biting, but they will not start to really bite until summer. The new American measures signed by Obama will go into effect next July. They will not be ‘fully’ reflected on the Iranian economy until after then, but the expectations are already working to squeeze the economy. When the Iranian officials claim that the sanctions are not affecting the economy they are telling a half-truth (I am too polite to call it a half-lie). They are just not yet dully affecting the economy.
The West may not need to "start" a war after all: the war may come to the West. If they can manage to line up much of the rest of the world as they seem to have lined up the Saudis and the UAE and possibly South Korea, then the Iranians may be pushed into a provocative act. Again, the example of Japan in 1941 before Pearl Harbor is relevant here.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com