Middle East Focus: Dodge City on my Gulf: a Phony War that Could become a "Dumber" War……..

Arabia Deserta

Dodge City on my Gulf: a Phony War that Could become a "Dumber" War……..

Rattlesnake Ridge

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"President Barack Obama, as an Illinois state senator in 2002, said that using military force to topple a murderous dictator amounted to a “dumb war” and should be opposed........" CNSNews, Media

“Iran's currency, the rial, has plummeted to its lowest value against the dollar in more than two decades after President Obama signed legislation Saturday targeting Iran's Central Bank. The rial dropped almost 30 percent in two days, hitting exchange rates as low as 17,800 rials per dollar on Monday as Iranians rushed to sell their local currency holdings in favor of havens such as the euro, the United Arab Emirates dirham, the US dollar, and gold. Washington's new financial legislation against Tehran will sanction foreign firms that purchase Iranian oil – by far the chief source of Iranian government revenue – and penalize banks engaging in financial transactions with Iran. The legislation won't be enacted for another six months……….”

“Iran’s military sharpened its tone toward the United States on Tuesday with a blunt warning that an American aircraft carrier that left the Persian Gulf through the strategic Strait of Hormuz last week should not return. The warning, by Iran’s military chief, was the latest and most aggressive volley in a nearly daily exchange of barbed statements between Iran and the United States. Iran has just finished ambitious naval exercises near the strait, and it has repeatedly threatened to close the passage —……..”

This is not a cold war as some have dubbed it. It is not a fully shooting war yet. It is like the phony war they had at the start of World War II, when nothing big happened for months, just before all hell broke loose. They are all waiting to see how the American political process evolves this year, and how much pressure Mr. Netanyahu and his American base can apply on the Democrats (too much). That may be a bit of an exaggeration, but this being an election year and political spinal muscles being usually soft in an election year, anything can happen.
The Iowa results last night and the national polls indicate that a large majority of the Republican Party already seems committed to a repeat of their last “dumb” war, and amazingly under the same pretexts, in the same region of the world (Where else can it be? They can't exactly bomb North Korea and get away with a conventional response, can they?).
Only the next war will be dumber than the one everyone says has just ended. Many Democrat politicians seem willing to go along. The Iranian military aren’t exactly helping calm things with their posturing and threats to the U.S. Navy which does have legitimate invitations to call on some Gulf ports. Posturing American politicians aren't helping with their jingoistic threats against Iran. There is enough posturing to go around on both sides, which is dangerous. It is like in Western films: if you give someone until noon to get out of Dodge, you better have a loaded gun and be ready to use it after noon.
There is already an intense shadow war going on: espionage, infiltrations, assassinations (mostly of Iranian civilian scientists, which would be called terrorism only if it happened in the West), and cyber forms of attack. Mr. Obama may be pushed into starting his own “dumb” war before the next election: only it will be dumber than the one he criticized before the last election.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com