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“Senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center David Ottaway agreed. “If you look at their history, you would not immediately say that they would become friends,” he said, describing the emerging relationship between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But Saudi Arabia and Turkey’s relationship is “based on immediate state interests.” As the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia has come to the forefront, Turkey has tried to balance its commercial alliances, calculating political positions to ensure Turkish interests vis-a-vis commercial trade. “Commerce and exports are critical” to Turkey’s economy, noted Barkey, which is why, in the past, Turkey has favored a policy of wanting “zero problems” with neighboring states. But in light of the increasingly fluid situation in the region, Turkey has learned to adapt effectively. He said the most clear example of changing alliances in the region is the partnership of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in support of Syria’s opposition, a cause for concern for Iran. Barkey said he believes that Assad’s regime will fall, but what will remain is “more and more chaos in the region…………”

Syria is the most important piece of the current Arab puzzle, as far as stability of the eastern Mediterranean is concerned. It is more important than even Egypt, which is ‘geographically’ isolated from such pieces as Lebanon and Iraq and Jordan. Syria also borders Turkey and it borders the strategic ‘frontiers’ of Iranian influence through Iraq and Lebanon. Whatever happens in Damascus, however long the Assad regime lasts, Syria will most likely remain in contention between the American-Saudi axis and the Iranians and their allies.
Whatever happens now Syria will change form the most secular Arab state to at least a  quasi-theocracy under the influence of the Muslim brothers or the Salafis or a combination of them. Oddly it may change from a very secular and repressive ally of theocratic Iran to a quasi-theocratic and repressive ally of theocratic Saudi Arabia.

Neither side, neither “axis” can deliver at least one thing that the Syrians will want: return of the Golan Heights. The Israelis are not likely to be eager to return the Golan under any government, the settlers and their right-wing supporters will not allow it. That is especially true now with the cold Egyptian peace degenerating into uncertain territory.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com