Rattlesnake Ridge 
BFF
“Senior U.S. diplomats have been dropping by the royal palace in Amman almost every week this spring to convince Jordanian King Abdullah II that democratic reform is the best way to quell the protests against his rule. But another powerful ally also has been lobbying Abdullah — and wants him to ignore the Americans. Saudi Arabia is urging the Hashemite kingdom to stick to the kind of autocratic traditions that have kept the House of Saud secure for centuries, and Riyadh has been piling up gifts at Abdullah’s door to sell its point of view…….The quiet contest for Jordan is one sign of the rivalry that has erupted across the Middle East this year between Saudi Arabia and the United States, longtime allies that have been put on a collision course by the popular uprisings that have swept the region……..”
The King of Jordan may have no choice than to move toward a constitutional monarchy. The Arab Spring has touched Jordan, but not as much as many other Arab states. As I commented a few months ago: Jordan differs from, say, Syria in that it (Jordan) is a police state that does not look like a police state (Syria is a police state that does look like one). The Saudis will have to fully integrate Jordan into the GCC, allowing Jordanians full free access to Gulf employment, something that would greatly reduce economic and political pressure on the regime. But that may create problems with other source countries of labor: Pakistan, India, Egypt, etc. Besides, Gulf potentates usually prefer non-Arab labor because the Asians are not interested in regional politics. (Unemployment among native citizens is extremely high by any standards in several GCC countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain: all double digit).
The truth is that Riyadh depends, will continue to depend, heavily on the USA, on American power and, especially, American weapons in its attempt to contain Iranian influence. Saudi hegemony in the GCC region is at least partly based on the sophisticated American weapons to which the massive Iranian military has no access. Instead, the Iranians rely heavily on their own arms industry.
Cheers
mhg
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