Middle East Focus: A Saudi Crusade or an American Jihad…….

Arabia Deserta

A Saudi Crusade or an American Jihad…….

Walking on water

“And then, anti-Americanism, and the need for American interventionism, can gradually subside. The Middle East may well be left in the hands of absolute monarchies, dictatorships and unstable factional coalitions, but nothing much seems likely to prevent that anyway. He is, effectively, outsourcing foreign policy so he can concentrate on the more important job, as he sees it, of reshaping his own country. There is, however, one serious fly in this ointment. Do these regimes really have things under control? The family autocracies of the Gulf, whose accession and rule were brought about by and then guaranteed by the Americans and British, have managed to maintain stability precisely because the great powers took care of the geopolitics. It’s all very well and good saying they now have to take care of it for themselves, and maybe they ought, but are they ready for it?........ But in recent days, both Bahrain and Kuwait have indulged in what are on the surface massive over-reactions to dissent from their Shia minorities – arresting dozens in Bahrain’s case, and accusing them of being terrorists, and stripping Shia clerics of their nationalities in both cases. As for Saudi, what does it propose to do with all its new fighter jets and missiles? Since there is no immediate (or distant) prospect of Iran attacking it, it’s not just a question of deterrence. It may well just be a deal – we will do big weapons rather than nukes – in response to Tehran’s nuclear provocations……. Above all, such deals and postures do little to reassure the Shia minorities that exist across the region (and are a majority in Bahrain) that they are not being perceived as an enemy. With Iran’s eager help, such perceptions are easily enough turned to reality. Readers may like to note that the region in Saudi which is most dominated by Shia is precisely that where most of the country’s oil wealth is to be found. It is safe for now. 2020 is a different matter…….” The Telegraph

There are a couple of historical mistakes here, but overall interesting. Especially the part about “we will do big weapons rather than nukes – in response to Tehran….”. That smells like another case of containment rather than rolling back whatever it is.

Containment of Iran is a strategic issue, done for perceived national interest of the USA and/or other states. Containment of Shi’ism as a faith is a “crusade”: an interesting joint crusade between a Wahhabi theocracy-cum-absolute-monarchy and a jealously secular Western democratic republic. What we may have is a “Crusade” by the fundamentalist Salafi Saudis and a “Jihad” by the American administration. Interesting times we live in, n’est-ce pas?
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com