Middle East Focus: Ahmadinejad and the West: the Devil you Know………..

Arabia Deserta

Ahmadinejad and the West: the Devil you Know………..

“American hiker Sarah Shourd was released by Iran today after more than 13 months in prison. Her release, delayed by apparent political wrangling behind the scenes, is the latest twist of an internal power struggle inside Iran that comes just days before President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad travels to the US….. But for Mr. Ahmadinejad, it's just one more chapter in the power struggle that's been unfolding for months below the surface in Iran. His attempt to orchestrate Shourd's release as a "gift" ahead of his trip next week to the United Nations riled conservatives in Iran's judiciary, who made it clear that Shourd would be released only on their terms……….”

"Iran watchers suspect hard-line elements within the Revolutionary Guard may have been trying to further damage an already battered and politically weakened President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his ongoing trip to New York, where he is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly and give a bunch of interviews to international media, as he does to improve his domestic and international standing every year. "The system's enemies and ill-wishers are trying to create an adverse atmosphere against the president and to overshadow his speech at the United Nations," Sistan-Baluchestan Governor-General Ali Mohammad Azad, an appointee of Ahmadinejad, told the official Islamic Republic News Agency. But the publication of the report may also have served as a menacing reminder to Ahmadinejad of how boxed in he is on foreign policy……”

My Two Cents.
Forget the nuclear issue: almost all Iranians, with the exception of some of the exiles, are of nearly the same position on that one. Including the internal opposition. They all don’t like what they consider self-righteous outsiders dictating their national policy. What is unfolding in Iran now is a three-sided power struggle between the presidency (Ahmadinejad), the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), and the more conservative clergy. Add the opposition (Mousavi, Karroubi et al) and you have a more complex Persian game of chess, nay a tournament of chess. Then there are Rafsanjani and Khatemi.

Ahmadinejad will be out by the summer of 2013. No, he will not be allowed him to run again, should he want to. Iranians cringe at the idea dynasties (well, modern dynasties: the last one was imposed on them by the USA and Britain). Iran is not Egypt or Yemen. In spite of all the US media and senatorial nonsense about a “dictator”. Nevertheless, the clergy, like all Middle East regimes, will do anything to keep their theocracy in power (waging war against God is frowned upon).

The IRGC would prefer a president more to its liking, but one that is a “civilian” like Ahmadinejad. The various factions of the clergy would prefer a president who will do their bidding, but one who does not wear the tell-tale turban. Except: it doesn’t work out that way, it never does outside Russia. Whoever becomes president will seek to assert and expand the authority of his office, just like Ahmadinejad is doing. (President Obama's position on executive power and privilege is quite different from Senator Obama's).

Iran has its own form of gridlock. It is in for a long period of “gridlock”, Washington-style, even though they do not have an identifiable single “Party of No”. Okay, not exactly Washington-style because the country has more factions than the two American ones (the Tea Party and the Democratic Party). Ahmadinejad has said some stupid things in public, and he seems to relish needling the West, pulling their self-righteous legs. But who comes after him could be worse. I know, it is hard to believe, but it can happen. Remember, Iran was named part of the “axis of evil” by Bush long before the world had heard of Mr. Ahmadinejad. He was busy with the traffic and sewers of Tehran. From a Western point of view, it got worse after that. It can happen again.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com