Middle East Focus: A Most Irresponsible Arab Dictator, but Who will Succeed Mugabe?……..

Arabia Deserta

A Most Irresponsible Arab Dictator, but Who will Succeed Mugabe?……..

“Egyptian President Hosni ~~Mugabe~~ Mubarak, whose health is the subject of persistent rumours, gave a recorded speech on Thursday pledging to focus on economic growth and social justice. The 82-year-old ruler underwent surgery at a German hospital in March to remove his gallbladder and a benign growth and sparked renewed speculation on his health last week when he twice postponed a meeting with Israel's premier. Mubarak's speech was aired to commemorate the 1952 revolution that overthrew the country's monarchy. "Economic growth and social justice summarise the many goals we aim for today, tomorrow and after tomorrow," Mubarak, who appeared in good health, said in the address broadcast by state television. The veteran ruler, president since 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat, has not said whether he intends to stand in the next election in 2011……”

Imagine if President Obama had no vice president, and there were no provisions in the US Constitution for a transfer of power in emergency cases (presidents are mortal). Imagine the chaos if something happens to a sitting president in a case like this. This is exactly the situation in Egypt, only worse: its dictator for 30 years has never appointed or allowed the election of a vice president. Even Bashar al-Assad in Syria has a vice president. Even Saddam Hussein had a vice president. If, when, he dies, Egypt can face chaos. Nobody knows who is to be president; anybody can make a grab for power: the military, the security services, the regime goons, all of the above. This can happen any day now. Yet he has refused to have a legal line for succession. There are three explanations, all of them bad:

Mubarak is very insecure: he has been afraid that any vice president will become more popular and may even overthrow him. Both Nasser and Sadat were supremely confident leaders: Nasser even had several vice presidents.

Mubarak wants enough chaos after he dies that people will remember his lousy and stagnant 30+ years fondly. They would consider his reign a great period in comparison to the chaos to follow. This was Robert Graves’ explanation of why an old and batty Roman Emperor Tiberius picked his maddest nephew Caligula as his successor. And it worked; he turned out so bad that people missed the reign of Tiberius.

Mubarak wants his son Gamal to become president after him. He has already had him appointed a top apparatchik in the ruling party. This is the most likely explanation and the one most widely accepted. This is also what is most likely to happen.