Russo-Iranian Tensions: from the Security Council to Undelivered Missiles to Central Asian Republics…….
“Iran is close to having the potential to build a nuclear weapon, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday in the clearest indication yet of Russian alarm over Tehran's atomic drive. "Iran is nearing the possession of the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of a nuclear weapon," Medvedev said at a meeting with Russian diplomats quoted by Russian news agencies. Russia, traditionally a diplomatic and economic ally of the Islamic republic, in the past took a milder line against Tehran than Western powers but recently noticeably hardened its position……...”
Since the last UN Security Council vote on Iran sanctions relations between Russia and Iran have soured. There has been public sniping between officials of the two sides. Medvedev now openly questions the veracity of Iranian claims that their nuclear program is completely peaceful. The “S-300 missile crisis” seems to have complicated matters from the Iranian point of view: the Russians already have the price money and are ‘nearly’ refusing to deliver. The Iranians are threatening to resort to "alternative systems", wtf they be.
The two countries share a common border with several unstable Central Asian republics, all territories that Iran (Persia at the time) and Tsarist Russia fought over for a couple of centuries. To complicate matters, the United States has a strong presence in some of these republics, increasing the Iranian sense of encirclement. It is real encirclement on all sides now, including the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, with military bases and naval forces forming a tight ring around Iran’s borders on all sides. No wonder the mullahs are worried and maybe speeding things up on the nuclear front; even the Iranian opposition (the Greens) seem to be opposed to compromising on the nuclear issue.
Iran and Russia can be potential rivals for influence in Central Asia, with Turkey also actively competing (the Iranians and Ottoman Turks fought for a couple of centuries over territory, mainly over control of what is Iraq today). The two also hold the world’s largest and second largest known reserves of natural gas. Another force for cooperation or competition. Then there is the nuclear power plant that Russia is supposed to help Iran complete at Bushehr this year.
The next few months should be interesting in clarifying these relations.
Cheers
mhg
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