The Push Toward the Nuclear Option in the Gulf?……………..
“However, any impulse to acquiesce will likely be mitigated by the other facet of the pressure track — the militarization of the Persian Gulf. The massive infusion of U.S. arms into the Gulf states and a menacing American armada patrolling Iran’s shores is bound to impact Tehran’s strategic calculations. Iran’s rulers will sense that the conventional balance of power is tilting dramatically against them. Lacking a sophisticated arms industry and increasingly unable to access traditional suppliers such as Russia, Iran is then likely to become even more attached to the deterrent value of nuclear arms. It is only through the possession of the “strategic weapon” that Iran will believe it is able to negate the imbalance of conventional power. So the dual-track policy is effectively bedeviled by its own contradictions. The sanctions may bring Iran back to the table, but it will be an Iran determined not to cede its nuclear trump card…....”
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