GCC Illusions: Monetary Union Dead, Saudis Push for Political Hegemony…………
Alarabiya, the favorite Middle East network of US officials, is a busy network, with a very busy website. The site often raises interesting issues, centered mainly on the Iranian “threat” and the spread of Shi’ism”, which it sees as one and the same thing. It also leads media campaigns against regional rivals of the Saudi ruling family (Iran, Syria, Qatar, the Comoros, etc).
Yesterday is raised the issue of the Arab member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council merging politically. It uses its favorite format, of having a group of “academics” and what it considers “local non-thinkers” discuss the issue of Persian Gulf GCC states merging into one state. It starts by having a couple of politicians or columnists write a couple of lousy sophomoric pieces (even worse than my blog postings, much worse) in a local daily rag of one Gulf state, then another responds, all seeming spontaneous, of course. Basically stirring the pot, sending out trial balloons on the issue. None of these writers ever raises the issue of political differences, pushing toward adoption of “the least” common denominator, the most repressive system in the whole region, the Saudi system of “absolute” monarchy and their self-serving quasi-Islamic rule.
The Saudis have already hijacked the idea of a monetary union, forcing Riyadh on the others as a home for any GCC central bank and forcing their governor as chairman. What they may not realize is that in doing so, in being so heavy-handed, they may have given the remaining three states in the currency union plan some new doubts about their own sovereignty being imperiled.
My own prediction now is that the currency plan will be put off well beyond my earlier date of 2015 ( a date I set about two years ago) and well toward 2020. My guess now is that it is not a necessary economic and financial plan for the member states, but a political plan that may lead them farther along the road to hegemony.
My guess is that the other states, and this is a very educated guess, will bide their time now, paying the usual diplomatic lip service. (During the 1980s Iraqis under Saddam Hussein proposed that other Arab states should start printing their currency in Iraq instead of in Europe, most of them printed with De La Rue of Britain and others. Luckily there were no takers in the Gulf region: almost everybody politely ignored the proposal).
Back to the silly idea of political union: guess who will be leading and ruling this one state that Alarabiya is pushing for? Do you suppose it is the al-Thani of Qatar that it sees ruling? Or the al-Khalifa of Bahrain? Or, or,………? Interesting.
Cheers
mhg
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