Middle East Focus: The Elephant in Tripoli, Iraq and her Neighbors, Writing on the Wall in Jerusalem…..…….

Arabia Deserta

The Elephant in Tripoli, Iraq and her Neighbors, Writing on the Wall in Jerusalem…..…….

The Arab summit in Libya has ended. It was one of the shortest in history, barely lasting a few hours, mercifully. Concluding speeches by the oligarchs, potentates, and dictators were dispensed with this year, mercifully. Nothing important came out of it and there is a good reason for that. To actually reach a decision in today’s Arab world, a decision that has a chance “on the ground”, you need three ingredients that were missing in Libya: the Americans, the Iranians, and the Israelis (sorry I almost forgot the Turks), and not necessarily in that order. These are the only powers that can make decisions for the Arab region, not the puffed-up impotent potentates (and I am not necessarily talking ED here) we saw in Tripoli. Their absence was the elephant that everybody, except Amr Moussa, ignored.

Amr Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League probably realizes this and hence proposed a wider security coordination and dialog group that would include Iran and Turkey. One probable reason for his proposal was to increase pressure on Israel on West Bank issues (as for East Jerusalem, I believe the writing is on the wall for that issue). It looked like a reasonably good proposal. His proposal was promptly shot down by the Saudis and their Egyptian sidekicks. They would prefer to be the big fish in a small but stagnant pond than be smaller fish in a big healthy pond. No doubt a Saudi potentate would be small fish indeed in a pond that includes Iranians and Turks, for example.

The Saudis and Egyptians are probably not very happy at the prospects of a healthier, democratic Iraq regaining its old inter-Arab influence. Especially a few years down the road with oil production increasing and its OPEC quota changed. That is why I am doubtful that they really want Allawi to become the next prime minister, even with his shadowy Ba’athist partners lurking behind him: they are more acceptable to many (Sunni) leaders and can make friends and influence potentates (especially if they get hold of an old copy of Dale Carnegie).

I got good news for them: don’t worry; he will not be the next prime minister- they should go back and read my fatwa. I agree with the despots on that one.
Cheers
mhg

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