Middle East Focus: Western Delusions of Change in Iraq: Beirut 2009, Baghdad 2010…………

Arabia Deserta

Western Delusions of Change in Iraq: Beirut 2009, Baghdad 2010…………

Last year much of Western media celebrated a political “victory” in Lebanon, with a loud round of congratulations and patting each other on the back. The conservative March 14 won a majority of parliamentary seats, after an unusually sectarian campaign. Hezbollah and its allies (Shi’a, Christian, and a few Sunni) won nearly 55% of the popular vote, but it was overlooked in the euphoria and the self-delusion. I wrote here that nothing had changed and I had thought that, if anything, Hezbollah may have a stronger lock on Lebanese politics. Today we know that if anything has changed in Lebanon it is that Hezbolllah is now stronger than ever.

Now for Iraq. Western, especially American, media have been practically anointing Allawi as next leader. As has the Saudi media. As have other Arab oligarchy media especially in the Persian Gulf region. They all expect Allawi and his allies of Ba’athist henchmen, torturers, and WMD users to return to power in Baghdad. It is my pleasure to disabuse them all of this illusion. Just as I tried after the Lebanese elections last year, even as Thomas Friedman and others were doing their victory lap..

The Iraqiya alliance led by Ayad Allawi won 91 seats, more than any other group. Al-Maliki group won 89 seats, INA won 70 seats, the Kurdish alliance won 43 seats.
There is little real change in the total seats for each group from 2005. Allawi’s group is more united, but the same separate groups won over 80 seats last time around. The Shi’a (Shi’ite) dominated groups (al-Maliki’s State of Law and the INA of Sadrists and ISCI and others) also have “nearly” the same number of seats. The only difference is that they are split into two groups this year. If and when the INA and the Maliki groups re-emerge after parliament is seated we will be back to 2005.

Iraqi law only requires the alliance with the largest number of “seated” members to try and form the government first. It is still extremely unlikely that they will agree to cooperate with all the unsavory Ba’athist groups Allawi had to deal with to form his alliance. Whatever one says about Allawi’s secularism, his main allies are unabashed Ba’athists seeking a foothold in the center of power. A foothold o start with.
Cheers
mhg

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