Iraq’s Factions Court Kingmaker Muqtada al-Sadr………..
Thus asked the website of Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law. Muqtada’s father and brothers were killed by the Ba’ath in 1990s; his uncle and aunt were tortured and murdered by the Ba’ath in 1980. The reference here is to Ayad Allawi’s coalition (91 seats) which relies heavily on former and current Ba’athists.
The answer is probably a resounding "no", but the Sadrists want al-Maliki out. They control the INA (70 seats) and are open to an alliance with the al-Maliki group (89 seats), sans al-Maliki as prime minister. Meanwhile president Jalal Talibani and Vice President were in Tehran yesterday for talks. Tehran most likely does not like to have Allawi to have the job, but the Iranian media has not been as frantic, or as openly biased, as the Saudi media about the election. Maybe because the feel they have strong cards in Iraq no matter what?
And to complicate matters, or simplify them, “Iraq's Supreme Court issued an opinion on Thursday specifying that a clause in the constitution referring to the "largest Council of Representatives bloc" could include an alliance formed after an election. The opinion, published in response to a query submitted by Mr Maliki, might allow State of Law and the INA to claim the right to form a government first. Together, they would hold 159 seats, four short of a majority. …..”
Which made me realize that, for all the noise in the Western and Saudi media, Allawi’s alliance is a small minority, 91 seats out of 325. The Shi’a alliances (call them the anti-Allawi) have 160 seats, and the Kurds (no Ba’ath lovers) have 43 seats. Not much has really changed in Iraqi political map, except al-Maliki will be out.
No, I am not wavering about my fatwa, not yet. The prospect of spending time in san Jose (Costa Rica) near Rush Limbaugh is not something I look forward to.
Cheers
mhg
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