Middle East Focus: Allawi’s Complaint: Former Baathists Playing Their Best Card........

Arabia Deserta

Allawi’s Complaint: Former Baathists Playing Their Best Card........

“Secularist bloc alleges major fraud in Iraq poll. A cross-sectarian, secularist list headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi on Thursday alleged major fraud in Iraq's national election this week. Members of Allawi's Iraqiya list called a news conference four days after the national polls as initial results trickled in. They complained of widespread fraud and said ballots were discovered in the garbage. "We have recorded dozens of violations and there is interference from some officials," Adnan al-Janabi, a senior member of the Iraqiya bloc, told reporters........”

It looks like, as has been expected by me, the al-Maliki coalition will get the most seats in the new Iraqi parliament. The second will go to either the Shi’a Iraqi National Coalition, or to the coalition of former Baathists nominally led by Iyad Allawi. Either way, it looks like either the Dawa Party (Maliki) or the Shi’a coalition (ISCI, Sadrists) will nominate the next prime minister. Allawi will not get it because he will not have enough votes, and many Shi’as, although they do not say it publicly, suspect that he may be a Trojan horse for pro-Baathists.

It looks like a coalition similar to the last one will lead the new government: mainly Shi’a and Kurdish, with some Sunni allies (a natural thing, given the polarization and the demographics). The Kurds will name the next president, possibly Jalal Talibani again. Tareq al-Hashimi, an Islamist ally of Allawi, stated that a Sunni Arab should become president, meaning himself- not a very non-sectarian statement.

Already Allawi is crying foul, which indicates that he knows he is losing. His coalition could not realistically expect to win majorities anywhere outside three or so provinces northwest of Baghdad dominated by Sunni Arab tribes. Complicating matters, Ahmad Chalabi and Ammar al-Hakeem are also muttering about the software used to tally the votes, but not as loudly as Allawi who is dying to become prime minister. But my fatwa still stands that he shall not become prime minister, not constitutionally. The surrounding Arab oligarchs like Allawi and his gaggle of former Baathists, although they had some serious grief from these same Baathists when they were in power.

Saudi media is already highlighting Allawi’s complaints, and highlighting some fringe “conservative” European (actually British) noises that are sympathetic to him. Alarabiya (Saudi) is acting toward Allawi as Fox News in the US does toward the Republican Party. But it seems to realize the game is up, because it is also talking of fraud and “Iranian” interference (the days of blaming Israeli interference are long gone).
They are already starting to cast doubts on the outcome, the absolute petro-oligarchs. The reason is obvious: they want to tell their peoples that “all this talk of elections is pure nonsense because they are fraudulent”. A couple of Iraqi Shi’a media outlets have also hinted at American and Saudi interference in the elections in favor of Allawi’s Aliraqiya coalition.
Aljazeera as usual has the best and least biased reports in the Gulf region on the Iraqi elections. The Iranian media is playing it cool for a change, so far reporting the various news stories with barely discernible tilt toward the Shi'a coalition that they certainly would perfer to win.
Cheers
mhg

Mon Email