Iraqi Hope and Regional Noise Before the Elections……….
“Sunnis, Shi'ites, Christians, Kurds, there's no difference, he says, adding, all of us are Iraqi. This sense of national identity has been largely missing from Iraq's political scene since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Shi'ites grasped power after decades of repression under ousted President Saddam Hussein. Sunnis, who boycotted the last national election in 2005, were then largely shut out of the political process. This time, there are no boycotts, and alliances are cutting across sectarian lines.Former national security advisor and Iraqi National Alliance member Moawafak al-Rubaie is among the many politicians running on a campaign of inclusiveness…….. Not everyone is so optimistic about the prospects for immediate, peaceful coexistence. One Christian woman said it was too dangerous for her to speak out about the threats she and her family face. She adds that it is worse for her relatives in the northern city of Mosul, but even in Baghdad she is worried about being murdered for her beliefs…..…..”
Okay, the Shi’as will have the prime minister, but it will not be Allawi (he is already setting himself up to complain about fraud, but he is no Mausavi, that is certain). The Kurds want to keep the presidency and perhaps the foreign ministry. The Sunnis may have realized that Iraq has changed and they will have to accept a supporting role. Things should work out fine: except for the armed groups and militias and for the various neighboring countries almost all of them, interfering with money, training, volunteer suicide bombers, and a lot of money.
- The Iranians will have to realize that Iraq will not be a satellite for them, nor should they want it to be. It will not be a country that adopts the rule of the clerics; even Sistani is strongly against that. The Iranians know that Iraq is reverting to its historic role as the pre-eminent center of Shi’ism.
- Saudis will have to learn to live with a unified Iraq with a Shi’a leadership, one that is not going to play a “guardian of the eastern gate” for them. The Saudis do not really want an Iraq re-integrated into the Arab world because it will be a strong rival to them.
- The other Arabs, well, they will have to lump it.
Most Arab oligarchs are quite critical of the way Iraq may be going, which tells me that something may be going right in Iraq. I am not sure what it is yet.
Cheers
mhg
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