War Games on the Persian-American Gulf, Stalin and McCain….. ……
“Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how unintended consequences can spin out of control:
With diplomacy failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by years. But what happens next isn't pretty…….. The White House tries to open a channel for talks with Iran, but is rejected. Instead, Iran attacks Israel, both directly and through its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It misinterprets U.S. actions as weakness and mines the Straits of Hormuz, the world's chief oil artery. That sparks a clash and a massive U.S. military reinforcement in the Persian Gulf. This recent war game conducted at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, part of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a center-left think tank, appears to dampen hopes for a simple solution to Iran's real-world nuclear challenge. The lesson is "once you start this, it's really hard to stop it," said Kenneth Pollack, a former White House and CIA official who oversaw the simulation………….”
This is silly. How can Israel strike Iran without the US knowing beforehand? The planes will have to fly across American territory, which is what all the Arab countries are, except for Syria. Turkey will never agree to such plan, so it has to be an Arab country. Even the foolish president of Georgia will hesitate to host Israeli attack planes, even if John McCain (that second most famous Georgian, after Stalin) intercedes.
I think the premise that Israeli attacks will succeed is most likely faulty. This is not 1981, and history does not repeat. Flying so many sorties to Iran requires, besides American permission, permission of several Arab oligarchies and even the Saudi royals will balk this time around. Their media have been preparing their people just for this eventuality, with all the emphasis on sectarianism and a Shi’a danger, but they may balk.
Cheers
mhg
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