Controlling Iraq, Riding a Whirlwind.................
“And if another lethal insurgency erupts, pitting Sunnis, dissidents, Baathists and even a revived Al Qaeda in Iraq against the government, countrywide violence could draw Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others into the fight. After all, Iran is not the only country backing allies in Iraqi politics; Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states are, on a smaller scale, backing Allawi and various Sunni candidates, an Iraqi source reports. "The Saudis don't operate directly," he says. "They operate through a route of deniability, using Lebanese businessmen, environmental charities, an assortment of princes and so on." At its core, the crisis in Iraq is also a struggle between Iran and the United States for influence in Iraq and across the oil-rich Persian Gulf. As the United States withdraws its forces, and as Iran builds up political, military and economic influence, Iraq will likely be pulled into Iran's orbit. "It's almost like watching gravity work," says CAP's Brian Katulis. Barring the outbreak of civil war, the most likely outcome of a rigged election in Iraq would look very much like the coalition that governs Iraq today, but it would be even more closely aligned with Tehran. "I think we'll see an increasingly authoritarian regime with close ties to Iran," says Visser. …….”
This is an interesting article, but parts of it are quite silly. The idea that Iran will, that she can actually control Iraq is a silly Western notion. Trying to control Iraq will only bring grief to whoever is unfortunate enough to do it. The mullahs will be making a big mistake if they think they can. They will have some parties and militias that are closer to them, and they will want to keep a friendly government in Baghdad. That is very likely given that the Kurds and Shi’as form about 80-85% of the population, and they tend to have cultural, ethnic, and trade relations with Iran. They have friends among the ISCI, Dawa, and others, just like the Saudis have friends in Allawi, al-Mutlak, and others, But control? I think not.
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