A New Israeli Hail Mary in Lebanon? Netanyahu's Faustian Deal of 2009...........
Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat quotes a Lebanese source that French President Sarkozy has told Lebanese officials that France promises to try and prevent Israel from striking at Lebanon’s infrastructure, but that is all he can promise, the infrastructure……. Asharq Alawsat reports that P M Hariri is trying to form an international diplomatic alliance of Arab and foreign countries that would deter an Israeli strike……..
"Tensions have escalated along the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Israeli army carried out drills on the northern frontier. Well-informed Lebanese sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that there is a state of alert within the Hezbollah ranks as Israeli troops were called up to the northern borders to carry out “military maneuvers”........."
The last attack on Lebanon (actually on the Shi’a parts of Lebanon only) did not succeed, and I doubt the next one will. It all depends on what the goal is, but Israel has always had bad luck in Lebanon, had always come to some grief in Lebanon. There has been no new Hezbollah move toward Israel, so this new noise could be aimed at the Iranian regime. The Lebanese report unusual increase in the number of Israeli warplanes trespassing over their airspace.
Perhaps it is a Hail Mary by the Likud coalition, with some tacit regional blessings, seeking to weaken Hezbollah which is considered an Iranian card in the regional power game between Iran, Israel, and the United States. The other Arab regimes do not count; they are merely hopeful but impotent spectators. They have essentially given a "power of attorney" to others to deal on their behalf.
Or perhaps an attack on Lebanon will be used as a distraction from the real issues that the Likud wants to postpone: the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. Netanyahu cannot afford to lose his more extremist right-wing partners; these are the people who made him prime minister after their Faustian political deal of last spring.
Cheers
mhg
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