The End of Khomeini-ism?………
“Some reports say shots have been fired in the air to disperse demonstrators. The opposition had been planning to use Shia religious festivals this weekend to show their continued defiance of President Ahmadinejad's government. Tensions have risen since influential dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri died a week ago aged 87. Clashes were reported after his funeral in Qom, and in other cities since then. Police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam has been quoted as warning that police would crack down hard against any attempts to use Shia religious processions to stage fresh protests against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government. Opponents insist there was massive rigging when Mr Ahmadinejad was re-elected in June - a charge he rejects. BBC Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne says opposition sources are building a picture of increasingly widespread and violent clashes. Unconfirmed reports on reformist websites said there were protests in several areas of the capital, including the poorer areas of south Tehran, and that government forces were using tear gas to try to disperse demonstrators……..”
I said last summer that the Iran turmoil will not end up like China did in 1989. It has not. It looks like the rigid regime of obedience to authority is ending in Iran. In effect Khomeini-ism as a method of governance is finished. There will always be a robust real (internal) opposition in Iran, even as the regime of ‘Supreme Clerical Guide’ continues to cling to power. With time, there will have to be serious political modifications; the ‘Supreme Leader’ himself will have to face elections rather than the selection process they have now, and he may end up being a figurehead, sort of like presidents in many European republics.
The danger is that the military (IRG) will try to take over, but military power failed to stop change in 1978-79; it failed mainly because the soldiers refused to shoot at their own people. The Revolutionary Guard may be more ruthless, claiming some kind of divine mandate, but whatever happens, the regime established by Ayatollah Khomeini will not be the same. Iranians are having one of their usual quarter-century moods for drastic change. The result will be good for Iran and for the Middle East region, which is why I doubt that the Arab oligarchs and despots want serious “democratic” change in Iran.
Cheers and Happy Holidays
mhg
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