Food Insecurity on the Persian Gulf: A Non-Issue of National Security in the Twilight Zone
Not sure why countries with relatively small populations (most of whom are temporary foreign laborers) worry about securing food supplies. In my earlier incarnation, the whole food source issue seemed to me like a silly phony issue raised by some bureaucrats and abetted by some Arab states hungry for investment funds. If there is a world catastrophe, you can be sure the Asian or African states where the land is leased and the crops are grown will renege on their agreements. In case you didn’t know, in times of starvation, reneging beats starving and especially beats being overthrown by an irate people.
Now some idle bureaucrats and hungry investment firms, and possibly some hopeful profiteers, are raising food supply again as a more urgent “national security” issue. The idea is that we do not want to depend on an "unreliable" West for food security. Yet we depend on a "reliable” West for our very existence. This is largely a non-issue that is common in our own twilight zone style of identifying problems, and resolving them.
As for some of the countries mentioned as sites for food production:
Egypt can’t even feed itself, hasn't been for years: it has been importing most of its food. Its people are too hungry to even rebel against a corrupt dictatorship that is three decades old and promises to continue through another generation of economic and political stagnation. How would the Egyptian people feel in future times of severe shortage, when the crop is shipped across to Saudi Arabia or the Gulf?
Sudan has been touted for decades as the Arab world’s “bread basket”, but in fact it has been only a “basket case” for several decades. And it is one of the least stable countries in the whole world. Persian Gulf countries have had a terrible experience with investing in Sudanese agriculture, since at least the 1970s. One country I know incurred huge losses from trying a major such project in Sudan. But it is true that often 'fools never learn': by definition it has to be true.
Saudi Arabia tried growing her own food, and spent huge subsidies on farming and on influential 'farmers'. In recent years it has found out that the arid desert of Najd is not exactly the San Joaquin Valley. It has had to scale back the futile and expensive projects of growing wheat and other crop in the desert. They were not economically viable.
It is alright to invest in some of these countries (stay away from Sudan), if it is deemed a good “investment”, after serious research and due diligence. But relying on them for food security? As the guy in New York said: forgetaboutit! Which translates to the Arabic equivalent of: “don’t be a dumb ass!”
The Gulf states would do better to secure food supplies from reliable places like the USA, Argentina, Australia, and a few other countries. Stick with these usual suspects, but stay away from the other usual suspects.
Cheers
mhg
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