Iraq in the Gulf Cooperation Council? Message to Secretary Gates: Forget About it.
“(US Secretary of Defense Robert) Gates to Gulf states: we support you against Iranian threat but you must accept Iraq into you Council….Gates said the Persian Gulf states should establish relations and support Iraq in the face of Iranian attempts to destabilize the Baghdad government….Iraqis want to be your partners…”alzaman
There is a discrepancy here. Some Gulf media, especially the Saudi media, insist in their editorials that the Baghdad government is a puppet of the Iranians. This last assertion is at the heart of the unfriendly relations between Baghdad and most Gulf states, especially those that are very close (too close) to Saudi Arabia. Yet Secretary Gates talks about Iranian attempts to destabilize Baghdad. So which one is it? Is Baghdad a puppet or is it a target? And how come the Iraqi government does not accuse Iran but charges openly neighboring Arab states of destabilizing Iraq (al-Maliki this week: see my posts)? The recent bombings, occurring daily now in Shi'a districts and with heavy tolls, have the hallmarks of Sunni extremist terrorist groups of pre-surge days.
I give Secretary Gates a piece of insight, a valuable insight in my own opinion: Iraq will never be admitted into the Gulf Cooperation Council, the GCC, because that will be a game changer. Iraq will immediately replace Saudi Arabia as the biggest and most influential member, and if you think Riyadh will accept that, you better get yourself a new set of advisers. Let us not kid ourselves: “The GCC”, as one Gulf potentate who used to be my boss once told me said “is Saudi Arabia”.
Besides the genie is already out of the bottle in Iraq. An elective republic dominated by a Shi’a (and Kurdish) majority is not considered kosher by Gulf potentates: it will not fit into a club for mostly absolute tribal monarchies. This is not necessarily a criticism of anyone, it is a fact. It will never be accepted into this cozy club.
Even if Baghdad switches tomorrow to a government system of absolute monarchy and cancels all elections, it will not be accepted, because it will immediately challenge and overtake Saudi domination. This in turn will diminish Saudi influence in the region and worldwide. The secretary has been in Washington long enough to understand all that. No dice. Case closed. Alles Klar?
Cheers
mhg
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