The Middle East is going through an uneasy period these days. Maybe it has to do with the weather shifting from mere hot to hotter. Maybe it is the season of dust storms. Or the uncertainty after Bush-Cheney were consigned to the dustbin of history, as they say. Or maybe they all await signals from Obama and Clinton (Hillary not Bill-not sure where he is)

From the (Persian) Gulf to North Africa, there is a feeling of incompletenss, that something is going to happen, that something should happen. Of course, I spent most of my life in the Middle East thinking, nay knowing, that something should happen. Oh, well.

In Egypt:

The country is fighting a two-front war, to read the local media editorials.

The regime announces a plot by the Lebanese Hezbullah to spread cells of Shi’ism in the country: presumably a prelude to establishing a Socialist Shi’ite Republic of Egypt- presumably replacing the all-powerful Mubarak with an all-powerful clergy, perhaps the stout Hassan Nassrallah himself.

 

They catch one Lebanese Hezbullah agent and a few others who helped him organize smuggling weapons into Hamas-controlled Gaza. The security agencies announce that a recent bomb at a Christian church in Cairo may have been the work of Hezbullah. This is met with widespread skepticism since Hezbullah is allied with Christian factions inside Lebanon, and does not blow up churches. They may occasionally blow up other ‘objects of interest’, Lebanese tend to do that in-country, but definitely not churches.

In Lebanon someone occasionally blows up a Lebanese politician or two, but nobody blows up churches. But it is a matter of time only: the Salafi Jihadist movement is NEW in Lebanon- give it some time.

 

Then the regime declares war on the country’s minority pigs. The police and security forces fail in the mission, as expected, at least by this writer, so the regime mobilizes the most powerful institution in the country, the military. The army faces unexpected resistance in its campaign to slaughter the nation’s pig minority. It manages to kill a few thousand pigs of a total that ‘officially’ reaches hundreds of thousands, although I believe the number is much larger (Arab regimes have an irresistible tendency to under-count their minorities).

To complicate matters further, another minority, the Christian Copts, the sole remaining link with the country’s pre-Islamic and pre-Arab heritage, side with the pigs. (I read somewhere that “Copt” comes from “Ka ptah” which was the name ancient Egyptians called themselves). The Copts’ anger is understandable: it is partly economic, since they run much of the pig farms in Egypt, and they would take the brunt of the economic loss. They might also miss their bacon and ham. They also, rightly, suspect that it partly reflects a recent ethnocentric bent in Egyptian policy, encouraged by the growing Islamist movements. This is not the same country ruled by King Farouq and Gamal Abdel-Nasser.

But then Egypt is fighting a two-front war now. Some would say it is a war by choice, others say the war was forced on the regime by a two-pronged assault by its two currently most serious enemies: Hezbullah of Lebanon and the native pigs of Egypt.

Then the government-owned media, specifically the daily al-Gomhouriya, joins the recently escalated Saudi media campaign against Shaikha Mouza, wife of the Emir of Qatar. Not against the Emir of Qatar, mind you: just against his wife. Its chief editor wrote that Qatar is mostly about tow things: al-Jazeera TV and Shaikha Mouza. That is unfair: sort of like saying that Egypt is all about Mr. Mubarak and the mummies at the museum in Cairo, the ones we had to bribe a guard official to let us have a detailed private showing of when we were 19 years old. This is not saying that the country is ruled by one particular mummy.

Al-Gomhouriya is the second largest daily in Egypt, is owned by the state, and its name means “the republic”, which might explain why there is no Saudi newspaper named al-Gomhouriya.

In Lebanon:

Four top security and military leaders are released by the courts, forced to do so by the international court of justice. Both sides, the Hariri and Hezbullah sides spin this as a victory, although it is harder for the former to do so.

In addition, security forces have announced the arrest of 12 Israeli spies (Lebanese who spied for Israel), which makes many nervous at the prospect that Netanyahu-Lieberman may be getting ready for another go at Hezbullah and Lebanon. Bibi knows, just absolutely knows, that he can do better than the likes of Olmert, Livni. Besides, time is running out on both the Lebanese file and the Iranian file: who knows when he and Lieberman (Avigdor not Joe) will be indicted on some corruption charges. All conservative (Likud) Israeli leaders end up being at least investigated. Nobody ever investigated Ben Gurion, Golda Meir, Eshkol, or Rabin. Not even Shimon Peres.

In the Gulf region:

Iran finally does the sensible thing and releases an American-Iranian reporter. But almost immediately the mullahs start noisily deploying forces in the Gulf- at least according to some Saudi media. Perhaps it is a reaction to noises made by Netanyahu, Lieberman (Avigdor not Joe) and Fox News.

The June presidential election makes things rather murky right now. But whoever wins, I would not bet on serious real change- not of the kind you can believe in.

In Kuwait, legislative elections will be held May 15^th, but no one expects any change that would break the political deadlock between the government and the Islamist-dominated (mainly Salafi-dominated) legislature. The new assembly will be dominated by the tribal elements, which also means the Salafis will hold sway. Nothing changes much because people in the Arab world vote for their tribes, and to some extent their sects. A tribe could nominate a Saskwatch as candidate, and he will still win every single vote from his tribe. (Some of you should look it up, I mean the word. That is what they call ‘em in the Northwest).

 

In Jordan:

 The media is celebrating the start of a new heavy arms industry.  I was intrigued when I first saw the headlines on Alarabiya, until I read the details. The new enterprise will have acapital of exactly $20 million. (Isn’t that what a new Subway franchise costs nowadays?) Someone should tell his majesty that won’t be enough to produce GI Joes, or even Barbie Dolls.

Not sure what is eating the Jordanians. Last month they talked of going nuclear, now they are getting into heavy weapons manufacturing (maybe slingshots). I hope they are not going Soviet on us- you can’t do that with a king. Burt first he would have to liquidate their Kulak.

Actually the king has made a quick visit to Syria. He is trying to get them together, at least move them closer. It might work, but I doubt it. Now for that heavy arms industry…

 

In Yemen:

The regime of President Ali Abdullah Salih, in power for over 30 years, is struggling to keep the country together and under its control. There are rebellions in the north and in the south. While some in the Arab (Saudi) media have accused Iran of meddling in Yemen, which is probably a self-serving knee jerk reaction these days but it is also possible, now the regime is hinting at al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula as a source. Al-Qaeda has always had a foothold in Yemen (remember the USS Cole?). Now conflicting reports blame three different parties: the Houthis in the north, the al-Qaeda, and southern secessionists.

Enough to drive any slef-respecting Yemeni to chewing more qat (khat, gat, pick your thing).

Cheers

mhg