Middle East Focus: Egypt in the Crosshairs. Israelis Select a Cherubic Enemy. Will Texas Secede Again? Will She Rejoin Mexico?

Arabia Deserta

Egypt in the Crosshairs. Israelis Select a Cherubic Enemy. Will Texas Secede Again? Will She Rejoin Mexico?

From Tigris to the Nile: It would have been hard to believe one year ago that the focus of attention, and the center of action, in the Arab Middle East would move far away from Iraq. In fact it has. Iraq is still the most violent Arab country outside Somalia (yep, Somalia is a full-fledged member of the Arab League, which might explain the dictatorial and tribal mindset that led to that country's disintegration). The terror bombings against Shi'a gatherings and neighborhoods in Iraq have been increasing, but they are now nearly at par with the terrorist bombings against Shi'a mosques by the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Pakistan (which is not in the Middle East). And Iraq is now the odd man out in an Arab League that likes its members to conform to its un-lofty behavior.
In fact conformity has become even more important: to such an extent that I expect President Mubarak of Egypt to show up in public any day now wearing a sun-bleached robe that the Saudis call thoub and the real Gulf people call dishdasha. Of course the telltale sign will be the headgear: will it be an all-white Gulf ghutra or a checkered red-white Saudi kaffiya? Given the way his appointed muftis have been issuing very un-Egyptian fatwas recently, I bet it will be a checkered one. Cairo has been rapidly losing influence under Mubarak to the extent that it is now a mere sidekick of Saudi Arabia. Nasser is probably groaning wherever he might be now, up there or down there.

Apparently the oligarchs and the Salafis have given up on 'regaining' Iraq, and now they are trying to salvage half of Lebanon and 'save Egypt'. Egyptian government media, and the Saudi media and its satellite outlets in the Gulf region, are talking as if Iran's ruling mullahs are about to swallow the Nile valley- as if a new Qambiz is about to sweep on the land of Pharoah. First there has been a concerted effort by amenable columnists from such non-Saudi writers as Mamoun Fandy and others (in Asharq Alawsat) down to the whole editorial boards of the Saudi dailies Asharq Alawsat and al-Hayat, then all the way down to locally published dailies. Fandy has even published a book titled "Un-Civil War of Words" tellingly with a huge logo of al Jazeera TV, the Qatari network deeply disliked by the Saudi media and its hired guns, on the cover. He did a Michelle Bachmann (as in rightwing Congresswoman) last week, calling on Egypt’s rulers to crack down on “the Iranian lobby” in parliament as well as in the media. In other words he wants Egypt to move even closer to the Saudi absolute rule model.
At least Fandy has not demanded that Mr. Mubarak take more wives to fit the Saudi model. Not yet, but it's early: the guy is only 100 years old.

Tensions with Iran are being used to urge crackdowns on pro-democracy politicians, just as the conflict with Israel was used in the past. The arrest in Egypt of a Hezbullah operative engaged in smuggling weapons to Gaza has been blown to the level of a conspiracy to overthrow the regime. Ayman Nour, the man who challenged Mubarak in the last election and spent years in jail for it, is getting ready to run again- something that makes the Mubarak kid very insecure. The media of the New Middle East have largely ignored him and his movement, just as they ignored the kangaroo court that sent him to prison. It is an embarrassing issue.

There are some shifts in alignment, though. According to Arab media Oman is moving closer to a balanced foreign policy in the Gulf region. It is moving closer to the Qatari position which has good relations with Iran even as it hosts the US Central Command. Oman also hosts US forces and installations that are vital for Air Force operations in the region. Both Aafaq and Rasid websites report that Oman’s foreign minister Binalawi went so far during a recent Tehran visit as to praise Hezbullah leader Hassan Nassrallah, a Lebanese ally of Iran- a definite no-no in parts of the official New Middle East. The sites quote a Reuters report that Oman is now more worried about extremist Wahhabi influences from Saudi Arabia than about Iranian influence.The Omanis may have been looking closely at Bahrain recently.

Hook-ups and fast-food marriages legalized in Egypt: All one has to do is look at Bahrain and Egypt. Salafis hold sway in Bahrain’s half-elected legislature. A decade ago the Saudi women’s burq’a was an oddity in Egypt, now it is quite common. Some districts of Cairo look more like Kabul or Swat Valley. Egyptian government-appointed shaikhs regularly issue fatwas legalizing various Saudi Wahhabi marriage practices that were considered abominable in Egypt a few years ago. Even the part-time and temporary tourist marriages which have become popular among Saudi men as a way to have varied sexual activity without total commitment or even cohabitation have been legalized by fatwas from Egypt’s not-so-grand Mufti. The last such fatwa legalizing the messayyar (basically a Saudi take-out version of marriage) was issued earlier this week, just in time for the tourist season. These aim especially at allowing Saudi and other Gulf petro-tourists to have legal intercourse with Egyptian women during holiday or business trips. It is a polite and legal way to barter money for favors. A few secular Egyptian commentators and academics have railed against this new trend, but they have no access to the state-controlled media, nor to the vast Saudi-owned media that seems to dominate the eastern part of the Arab world.

"Egyptian police arrest students from Iraq and the Gulf states for calling out the Shi'a azan prayer call..... Investigators say they have even been collecting money from their co-religionists with the goal of building a Shi'a mosque....Now they have been accused of forming a secret cell to spread their faith....." Alarabiya and other Arab media, April 16, 2009.
In the moderate New Middle East of the twenty-first century......Actually it is the fifteenth century of the Hijjri calendar of the moderate New Middle East, and in some ways much earlier. Under the 28-year of Husni Brezhnev Mubarak, the longest serving ruler of modern Egypt.

The Israelis' cherubic Nassrallah:

"Israeli anti-drug organization has picked Hezbullah leader Hassan Nassrallah as a symbol of its campaign to reduce the use of drugs. The campaign ad tells the young to stop smoking banned substances because 'taking drugs is like another victory for Nassarallah'..."
A bearded chubby enemy as a mascot: maybe they think he looks cherubic. If this doesn't work, and it won't, they can revive Nancy Reagan's old slogan"Just say no." But we know from the thriving drug business that most of those who said 'no' at that time said 'no' to the slogan.

Adios Texas: Texas has a modern history that matches in instability the most unstable states of the world. It started organized life as Spanish territory, as a state of Mexico, as an independent republic, as part of the USA, as part of the Confederacy, then as part of the USA again. During much of the first half of the 20th century it had questionable status by most accounts. Now the governor of Texas and others are making noises about secession and the Tenth Amendment.
Will Texas secede from the United States again? Will she rejoin Mexico, a process that some local Republicans complain is already happening? Will Governor Perry be the new Jeff Davis, and Rush Limbaugh a new Robert E. Lee (albeit quite a different Robt E. Lee, an unclassy one: fat, overfed, hairless, and graceless)? What about Glen Beck: he can cry on television almost as convincingly as Hillary did in the snows of New Hampshire- almost.
Cheers
mhg