Perfect Storm: A Triple Financial Crash in the Arab World- Of Elections, Reform, And Family Values- A King, a Dissident, and The Big Apple
Media report that Arab markets declined by 22% during this past October alone, and that translates into market capitalization losses of about $255 billion for the month. This comes as part of a triple blow when added to sharply reduced crude oil prices and the sharp declines in international financial markets. The decline in oil prices and the collapse in world financial markets tie down the hands of various governments, especially in the Gulf, to intervene and boost domestic share prices. Sovereign funds of the Gulf countries have generally invested to some extent in local funds and shares in order to prop up the markets. These investments are largely political and not usually based on sound financial fundamentals: they have tended to be across the board and to fluctuate with the domestic political atmosphere. I guesstimate that the sovereign funds have probably lost over $600 billion as of today on their foreign investments alone.
I think we will again start to hear a lot more talk about reform in the Arab world. Something we have not heard much about while crude prices were above $100 a barrel. This talk of reform comes and goes in a predictable cycle. Now they will dust off old proposals dating perhaps two decades or more, and hand them over to committees- case closed. Talk of reform in the Gulf region is sort of like talk of ‘family values’ among conservative Republicans politicians in the USA: they do it at election time and when they are in deep trouble. Of course there are not many elections to speak of in the moderate tribal New Middle East.
As of last night, and today, there is nothing about him in that same media. Nada, Rien, Nechevo. Not a mention. Apparently the editors got their orders from high above. Foreign media report that Mr. al-Lahim will not b able to travel to London to receive his award because Saudi authoritieshave revoked his passport and banned him from travel.
Oddly the Saudi king is in New York right now, traveling freely, promoting some international inter-faith dialog: a largely offshore inter-faith dialog, far away from the shores of Arabia. Mr. Bush showed up at the 'dialog' and stated that "freedom includes the right of every person to practice the religion that he wishes to practice"- which may come as a great surprise to the Saudis. Of course, Bush did not explain if he meant that even people in Saudi Arabia should have the right to practice their 'freely chosen' faith. Don't start planning that church or synagogue, or even that first Shi'a mosque, in Riyadh yet.
Even Aljazeera and other web sites have fallen in line this time and did not report on the award or the ban on travel.
A Human Rights Watch official issued a statement saying that “Al-Lahim stands for justice and the rule of law in Saudi Arabia. Barring al-Lahim from travel only highlights the severe and arbitrary limits to basic freedoms and fairness in the kingdom.”
Meanwhile, there is much hand-wringing in the same media about the lack of freedoms in such places as Syria, Mauritania, Zimbabwe, and Burma (there is a lack of freedom in all those places, and in other places as well). And so it goes in Mr. Bush’s moderate, tribal,extremely polygamous, New Middle East.
Cheers
mhg
m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com
Comments