The Axis of Evil has fallen on hard times. Will the Neocons find someone to keep Iran company?
The mullahs, nukes, and the Willie Nelson factor.
Rating the chances of other potential Mideast nuclear powers: the brains and money factor.
The Lebanese are engaged in low level mini-wars. Guns and buns in Beirut. Feudalist liberals of Arabia.
Two African Octogenarian despots clinging on to power.

                              
                                    One of the Asses of Evil

Axis of Evil Brain Drain:
It looks like a second leg of the axis of evil has fallen.
If the news about North Korea is true, and they have abandoned their nuclear program. I'll reserve full judgment for about a year, until after the US election: nothing has been said yet about any of their developed nuclear warheads. But if they have, then that leaves only Iran as the lone member of the axis of evil, a term once called (by me) the most asinine ever used by a US president in the 21st century. Perhaps since at least Warren Harding (that was in the 20th century and I can't point to any specific asinine quote from Mr. Harding, but he probably had a few: he seems like a good candidate for them).
Actually it was not Mr. Bush's term: it was coined by a right wing minion who quit while he was ahead and spread the news all over cable TV that he had coined the term- his claim to fame.

Libya, which did not rate axis-of-evil membership, has also given up her limited program, and we know that Bahrain, never in serious contention for the coveted axis, had issued assurances a few months ago that her nuclear ambitions are entirely peaceful and to prove it has agreed to cooperate with the US on this matter. Now Europe can breathe easy, knowing that Bahraini nuclear warheads will not rain on her cities. Good, I hate to see harm done to such fun places as the Fontana di Trevi Fountain and the Champs Elysee, and I certainly don't want harm done to the Zwolf ApostelKeller where I had some good times long ago in Vienna.
As for Syria: its chances for going nuke were slightly ahead of Jordan's which are nothing, even with an under-appreciated genius reigning as king (Abdul de Jourdanie). It takes brains and money to develop nukes, and neither Syria nor Jordan has much of either.

What next? Will the Iranian mullahs see light, discover the joys of pacifism and give up their 'nukular' ambitions? That is extremely unlikely: they are not known to smoke reefers in Tehran and Qom, at least not in public, and if they did they would look more like Willie Nelson than a gaggle of Ayatollahs. However, in the unlikely event that they do abandon, to use airline lingo, that will leave the real pusher of nuclear technology still in the good graces of the Bush administration. That would be Pakistan, home of favorite son A. Q. Khan, the man most responsible for the spread of nuclear technology worldwide since the days of imagined and real US traitors who gave it to the Soviet Union. Pakistan, now the home base of al-Qaeda, the military and logistic home base- the financial home base is elsewhere, a little to the west, as we all know.

Speaking of the Axis of Evil, it should be noted that the Asses of Evil will also depart come January, hopefully unless the voters of Ohio, Florida and Minnesota are again talked and scared into acting against their own best interests.

Lebanese Games:
In Lebanon, political tensions continue in Beirut over cabinet posts, with the Lebanese sides haggling over important posts, and both the US and Saudi Arabia campaigning hard to keep opposition parties (Hizbullah and her allies) from such jobs as the foreign and finance ministries. Secretary of State Condi Rice even made a special trip to Beirut probably just for that purpose, and the Saudi ambassador is reported to be very active. No news of the activities of the Iranian ambassador or the Syrian 'whatever' in Lebanon, but there must be some.
General Michel Oun and his Christian group are doing the toughest bargaining right now, with the general himself seeking a top post, which would be a nightmare for the Hariri-Saniora side. But in Lebanese politics, as in the Mafia 'families', alliances shift, and surprises are the only certainty.

Meanwhile sporadic fighting continues in the north around Tripoli, between rival Sunni and Alawite groups. There have been tensions in the past between these groups that 'control' adjacent areas, but the recent growth of Salafi ideology and groups has exacerbated tensions. Tripoli is traditionally a center of Sunni demographic and political power in Lebanon, but being in the north, it has always had Alawites who probably have spilled over from nearby Syria and possibly Turkey where they form 25% of the population.

Now Lebanon has discovered the joys of Salafi ideology, a direct result of the moderate polygamous New Middle East media harping on the fact that Hizbullah is a 'Shi'a' organization. Nothing can set the blood of a Salafi to boiling like mentioning a Shi'a group. Now Lebanon's Sunnis, historically somewhat liberal if even while somewhat feudalistic (I know this makes no sense to you infidels, but it is possible and common in the Middle East), have been pushed by propaganda and by fear of Hizbullah toward Talibanization.

Arab media report the opening of a new restaurant in thje Southern (Shi'a) suburb of Beirut. This is the same area that bore the brunt of the Israeli attacks during its war with Hizbullah in 2006, the one Secretary Rice called the 'birth pangs of the new Middle East' while the bombs were falling.
The restaurant is named Guns 'N Buns. No it is not about BAMS.


Two African Octogenarian Dictators:

                      
Robert (Bobby) Mugabe           Husni Mubarak

Clinging to power for now, waiting for better prospects...

Cheers
mhg