• The Battle for Basra: will Baghdad and other towns pay the price?
• The Jihadists' own March Madness, but without the Tarheels.
• Are al-Qaeda and Bin Laden fearing irrelevance? Are they bored? Why not get some new wives?
• Libya's entertaining Qaddafi does it again: he opines on Bush doing the Hajj and on Shi'as.
• The logic of eschatology and logic.
• Saudi bully tactics and the fading Arab summit institution.
  
                                               
          Arabian Night Fever            Ich bin ein...was?
                                                                                                   

The Battle for Basra: will Baghdad pay the price?
The battle for Basra rages, as it has been for some time now, but with some new players. Now Iraq has become more 'fair and balanced'. The government, with US help, is fighting not only Sunni terrorists, but also renegade Shia militias. The emphasis is on "renegade": the Awakening Councils and the sanctioned Shi'a militias are not "renegades", not yet.

It is possible that, with the push to stabilize Basra, there is the danger of destabilizing large sections of Baghdad. Unrest is already spreading, and many Sadristas are itching for a fight, except their 'nominal' leader who seems to have switched to civil disobedience. Maybe he does not think the time ripe for a battle, he has a history of pullng back from a battle when it suited him, as he did in 2004 and 2007.

Basra need to be pacified for Iraq to begin to achieve some normalcy, hopefully a different one form the pre-2003 normalcy. Basra is the sea gateway to Iraq, and its main oil city, which explains the continued inter-Shi'a fighting over it. It also explains the periodic emergence of some new "apocalyptic" armed groups in its vicinity, groups that Iraqis claim are financed by petro-money from some neighboring countries (other than Iran which already supports some well-known groups).

Do al-Qaeda and Bin Laden fear irrelevance?

UBL and his sidekick must be going through their own March Madness somewhere out there. That must be the explanation for their recent behavior: men don't suffer PMS.

Al-Qaeda has blown its chances in Iraq, at least for now but most likely forever. It has handed all those resentful Sunni tribals who would rather sup with the devil than break bread with the Shi’a al-Maliki, handed them to someone even worse according to their doctrine, the full-fledged American kaffir heathen. The very same who overthrew the Arab nation’s last not-so-white hope (not sure hope for what other than self destruction) and opened the door for the installation of the Shi’as and Kurds in power.

It is enough to make a gas-throwing genocidal officer of the Old Ba’ath Army cringe- that would be the same army, the third world tribal shell Wehrmacht that five-year later cable TV quarterbacks of the media are regretting that it was disbanded.

Al-Qaeda seems to be having a fire sale: new tapes from UBL and al-Zawahiri have been handed out furiously this month- threatening evrybody, including the Europeans as well as that old staple, Israel. They are as usual repetitive: it must be boring for them up there in the tribal Pashtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. One advice: get a new wife or two, you both must be short of the regulation four wives by now, what with all the raids and strikes.

 
But never fear: it is resurgent in Afghanistan, for now. It is down in Pakistan, for now: but will grow again as the new alliance of the corrupt Bhutto-Zardari and Sharif tightens its grip. As the kleptocracy starts to do what kleptocracies can't resist doing- kelpting or kleptocrating?.

The GOP may keep UBL as a campaign poster for the November elections, but that would be a double-edged sword. Now that they have “the” national security candidate. Now that he knows the difference between Sunni Wahhabi fundamentalist al-Qaeda and Shi'a fundamentalist al-Mahdi Sadristas. He also knows the difference between the Jewish Purim and the American Halloween, courtesy of Joe Lieberman, the “real” national security expert.

Libya's Qaddafi Does it Again: On Mecca and Shia's.
Colonel Qaddafi has a knack for irritating some other Arab leaders, especially the Saudi royals in recent years. That is why he is the most entertaining Arab leader to listen to: he is the only one who does not bore you to sleep (or death), at least not for the first hour. The other Arab leaders make one yawn just looking at them.
This week Qaddafi was at it again, again infuriating the Saudis and their media by touching on two topics that are very "touchy" for them: the sanctity of the (Kaaba) Holy Shrine at Mecca, and the treatment of Shi'as in many Arab countries. These are subjects that are not to be discussed in genteel company, especially genteel Wahhabi company.

First, the colonel literally invited George W. Bush to walk around the Kaaba as many times as he wants, if he wants- which is doubtful, unless he decides not to have a third Bush term. He contends that it is the house of God, an hence should be open to all who believe in Him: i.e to people of all monotheist religions, incluing Christians and Jews. The colonel does not know that Zaroastrians are also monotheists- notr does almost anybody else.
He said the pilgrimage to Mecca preceded the Prophet Mohammed and Islam, which is true. Pagan Arab tribes used to go on pilgrimage long before Islam, when the Kaaba was lined with statues of pagan idol gods. Again, for the second time he said that Mr. Bush should have the right to go since he is a person of the book (Christian or Jew). He really wants Bush to do the Hajj, but the logic of eschatology sometimes defies....logic.

Second, Qaddafi reiterated that Shi'as are "persecuted" in Arab states, often treated as second or third class citizens. He did not mention Saudi Arabia by name, but if the shoe fits one often tends to wear it.
Qaddafi also blasted the Salafi Wahhabi doctrine, without naming it, for criticizing some faiths for "idolizing" the prophets, for example celebrating the birth of the Prophet. H noted that the Quran mentions Mohammed, Jesus, Moses, Mariam (Mary) many times, which they might consider a form of idlolatry.

Much of Arab media, especially in the Gulf, ignored the speech which for some reason was delivered in Uganda, although one Lebanese daily and Aafaq reported it. The colonel immediately drew the ire of the vast Saudi media, which again criticized him severely, without mentioning the contents of his speech.

The Saudis are pissed again, and there is no doubt they will send a royal janitor to Tripoli next time the Arab summit is scheduled for Libya. They are doing marginally better by the coming Summit in Damascus: they are sending a royal doorman (ends with an 'n' not a 't').

Saudi Bully Tactics and a Fading Summit:
Saudi Arabia and a few other allies are trashing the Arab summit in Damascus. They are punishing the Syrian regime for not toeing the line in Lebanon. Clearly the Saudis would like to see all over the Arab world the same uniform conformity that they have apparently managed to enforce at home.
They have downgraded their delegation to the coming summit in Damascus as a punishment. As I noted above, the Kingdom is practically sending a royal doorman to represent it.

The rump Lebanese cabinet has decided to boycott altogether. It has published a long litany of reaons that it will not attend, but the list did not include the one probable true reason: the Saudis, who have at least as much influence on the Hariri-Saniora group as Iran has over Hizbullah, probably more, have downgraded the Summit. They are sending someone who cannot speak for the kingdom, thereby effectively boycotting it.

Of course the moves by Saudi Arabia and Egypt are not just insulting to Syria, they are also insulting to all Arab leaders who will attend. King Abdul de Jourdanie has predictably decided to boycott. This is not a Syrian Summit, it just happens to be scheduled in Damascus: it is an "Arab" Summit, but the despots don't see that. 
This basically ends the institution of Arab summits: next year it will be boycotted by the other side. Which may not be a bad thing: as I have written earlier, these meetings do nothing for the peoples.

VP Cheney's visit last week to the New Middle East has also been noted, and some claim that it was partly aimed at stiffening the boycot of the Summit. The Syrians are already blaming the US for the "attendance problem", aka the truancy of several kings and presidents-for-life.
Cheers
mhg

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com