Chavez, Arab Leaders, Ahmadinejad: Investing in 'Put' Options on Eschatology
Hugo Chaves has been in the news for some time: he always manages to put himself in the news. He is not only demonized in the US press, but pro-government Arab media have also taken to mocking him, poking royal fun at him, even though the fact is that most Arabs on the street like him, perhaps for the very same reasons. He seems to be close to Iran's Ahmadinejad, but that is probably just a case of sharing a common foe in the White House. Perhaps the reasons for this Arab split toward the Venezuelan leader can be explained: Q: What is the difference between Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Husni Mubarak of Egypt?
A: When Chavez thought he should rule beyond two terms, perhaps for life, he put it to a popular referendum, and
he was voted down. And he accepted it, at least so far. Mubarak has been president for 26+ years, with an
emergency rule in place ever since. He runs unopposed in rigged elections that even Robert Mugabe would
not touch. Only once was someone allowed to run against him, under international pressure. That man
languishes in prison. His son is set to inherit the throne of Egypt in spite of both of them denying it (we can't
call it lying in polite company or in the Arab press which is not so polite or free).
Q: What is the difference between Venezuela's Chavez and the Saudi rulers?
A: Chavez sought popular support for the idea of extending his rule, and lost. In Saudi Arabia one family rules
forever with a king at its head and several thousand princes, with their multiple wives, numerous brats and
retinues, having first dibs over the country's resources. They even renamed the country after the family:
imagine if Venezuela were to be renamed Chaveziana, that might be considered a casus belli.
Q: What is the difference between Hugo Chaves and these others in the Middle East?
A: He tried to take power through a coup and failed. Later he decided to run for elections. The others inherited
power or took it through coups.
Q: What is another difference between these Arab rulers and Chavez?
A: Chavez seeks to destabilise his region, partly just to irritate the United States. They love stability, the kind
that existed in the olden days, happy golden days. They would love to keep things just as they have been.
Of course the changes Chavez wants to bring about may turn out to be much worse than the status quo.
Q: What is the difference between Chavez and Iran's Ahmadinejad?
A: Chavez probably loves his rum. Ahmadinejad is not really a party animal, not into grog- he probably sticks to tea with a cube of sugar under the tongue. Besides, it is clear that the little Iranian has got no rhythm, can't
dance to save his life. Actually maybe he shouldn't, it could be counterproductive unless he relocates.
Q: What is another difference between Hugo and Mahmoud?
A: This is where finance might meet eschatology. The Iranian firmly believes in the coming Mahdi at the end of
time, a prospect Hugo would, given his background, probably 'short' if he were a market trader, or better yet,
buy a 'put' option on if he was shrewd and more risk averse. He could be a closet risk-averse investor.
Cheers
MHG
m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com
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