Iraq's Illusory Center, Why Eager Allawi Will Not Succeed Bumbling Maliki
One stark conclusion comes out of the Petraeus-Crocker testimonies this week: the idea of a dominant Iraqi power center is dead. The new American ‘tilt’ to the Sunni tribal sheikhs in al-Anbar and other provinces has put another big nail in the coffin of a strong Baghdad government. Everyone who matters seems resigned to the idea of some sort of federation of regions (and/or provinces), even U.S leaders who do not want to say so publicly. The Petraeus and Crocker statements were full of hints that the traditional center of power is dead- they certainly are having a hand in that. That is not necessarily a bad thing.
Everyone, that is, except Arab regimes and Arab commentators of various persuasions- but they do not really matter, and they seem to live in a time warp. They, as usual, are way behind the curve as far as Iraq is concerned.
The consensus on federalism has solidified by stealth over the past year or so, ever since the Biden-Gelb article. Meanwhile, the Arab world is stuck in its own perennial admiration of authoritarian central authority, its inability to think outside the box, outside its own political twilight zone. It has absurd dreams of a powerful Iraqi center in the traditional Arab mold, preferably to be captained by Iyad Allawi, absent the right kind of military man. Mr. Allawi is running hard for the job and all over the place: in Riyadh, in Washington, Amman, Abu Dhabi, even in a mostly marginalized Cairo. Occasionally he even runs in Baghdad and Kurdistan, but he never sets foot in the Shi’a south: that is telling and may explain why he will never get the job in a constitutional way.
Allawi is also sending a stronger message by the one other place, besides the Shi’a south, he does not campaign in: Tehran. This sends a clear message to the above capitals that he will not tolerate Iranian influence in Iraq and will work to roll it back. His hint resounds in Arab capitals and in Washington- it also appeals to a segment of Iraqis, most of whom do not wish to be dominated by any outsider. He looks right now like the last great white (read that as secular pan-Arab) hope. The fact is, and this may be unfortunate, that the sun does not shine very bright on secular Arab leaders these days, especially on those who have some pretensions at electoral democracy, especially in Iraq. The religious tide, Sunni in the West and Shi'a in the center and south, has to run its course. It has to be given a chance to fail on it own merits in an electoral system, as it surely will.
Cheers
Mohammed
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