A Light in Iraq? al-Anbar, Regionalism, and Potemkin Arab Democracy
There is growing perception among US politcians and some opinion-makers (whatever that is) that something is working in Iraq, and perhaps it is a combination of the surge and the well known tribal love for arms, money and autonomy. Perhaps it is the eternal and understandable search for the elusive 'light at the end of the tunnnel'. Maybe something is working, for now- as to the future, well, on va voir, as Sarkozy is wont to say.
Al-Anbar is used as an example of success, just as it used to be an example of a dysfunctional state. Actually it is a good example of regionalism resurgent and encouraged. It makes a good case for a federation of regions. Almost all Iraqis in the povince are Sunnis: sectarian homogenmeity in al-Anbar is perhaps more pronounced than in Basrah. Add to it the very likely promises of autonomy for the shaikhs. Add arms, to fight al-Qaeda Arab foreigners. Add plenty of money from Saudi Arabia & the Gulf. Add the fact that al Qaeda overplayed its hand in trying to usurp tribal authority.
Besides, it is not likely that the government in Baghdad or the Shi'a and Kurd leaders care much how the province goes, they know it will only be a source of trouble for the central government. An overwhlemingly Sunni province, heavily tribal, with tribes that have kin in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, with long boders abutting Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia- all these mean trouble for Baghdad.
Still, it looks like de facto regionalism: al-Anbar Sunni shaikhs being wooed by the U.S president, the British leaving a restive Basrah in the hands of Shi'a soldiers, the Kurds well on their way to semi-independence. Joe Biden couldn't have done a better job in institutiing federalism.
al-Maliki's hapless and whittled down government is holding, for now. Most American politicians want it to go. Neocons want it to go, Democrats want it to go- perhaps even the Sierra Club and Fox News want it to go. Everyone thinks that a new PM will solve the 'political' problem, although no one knows how. Neocons prefer Iyad Allawi now, but he is not politically in synch with most Iraqis, not yet anyway. He is, however, in synch with some U.S policy-makers, and with most Arab rulers, including the Saudis who are willing to hold their Wahhabi noses and 'accept' a secular Shi'a as Prime Minister of Iraq, provided he is the right kind of secular Shi'a. They are such famous and ardent lovers of secularism over there.
Looks like PA chief Mahmoud Abbas has decided to help guarantee his party, Fatah, a win in the next Palestinian election. His formula is simple, and falls within the bounds of tradiional Arab Potemkin democracy: change the rules so that you are guaranteed a victory. Abbas has changed some rules to prevent the fundamentalist Islamist Hamas from participating in a new election. Looks like both Palestinian factions are cracking down on each other's followers with typical extra-legal means in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Iran's Agmadinejad is quoted today as asserting that 'he knows' no country will attack Iran. Does he have a hotline to Crawford, Texas? I doubt we'll see him wind-surfing at Kennebunkport anytime soon: it won't help his re-election chances.
Cheers
Mohammed
m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com
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