The United States is reassessing and most likely will publicly change its strategy in Iraq. Apparently so is al-Qaeda adapting. Recent news from al-Anbar province claim that the terrorist group has literally taken over the streets of Ramadi, a stronghold of Sunni anti-Americanism. Al-Qaeda and some other Sunni affiliates recently declared an independent Islamic Emirate in western Iraq. This indicates several things:

1. The group realizes that it cannot take over the whole of Iraq, either because of American military might, or more likely because of the overwhelming numerical superiority of the now well-armed majority Shi’as and Kurds. The secret to controlling the majority in Iraq had always been the military and security forces, which were handed by the British to the Sunni elites and their tribes at the creation 80 years ago. At that time they were considered, wrongly as it turned out, pro-British (see the papers of Gertrude Bell).
2. The group wants a foothold in the middle of the Arab region, and it realizes that its best chance for a foothold lies in the heavily Sunni western provinces. In essence it is staking a claim on these areas where it can have access to men and materiel from the Sunni Arab countries to the south and east. It is letting interested other parties, like the remnants of the Ba’athists, know it. This is also a significant symbolic move: at the dawn of Islam the Prophet Mohammed and his followers established a foothold in Jewish-dominated Yathrib (present day Medina) from which they spread and took over Arabia. Al-Qaeda fancies that it has now found its Medina.
3. The group wants to keep the American and Iraqi forces busy in the area around Baghdad with increased and intensified bombings and self-propagating sectarian killings- like the beheading of 17 Shi’a laborers in Balad earlier this week that led to counter killings of Sunnis by the Shi'a militias. Keeping the Americans and Iraqis busy with security concerns around the capital would give them the freedom of action within the new Imara Islamiya, the ‘Islamic Emirate’.
4. It is telling the Sunni tribes who are willing to join the political process to take their business elsewhere. This is not going over well with the tribes, which explains the apparent emergence of a split, and the reported formation of a Sunni tribal group opposed to al-Qaeda in al-Anbar. It is possible that some regional U.S. allies are helping in this new anti-Qaeda alliance among Sunnis- Saudi Arabia has tribal links in southwestern Iraq, and it has the money to sway some hesitant chiefs who resent and fear the intrusion of foreign Arab fighters.
5. The group is also girding to join a possible fight over Kirkuk. The citizens of that contested city are soon to vote on whether they want to join the autonomous Kurdish Region. Their Emirate touches the borders of Kirkuk. Al-Qaeda considers the Kurdish region a foothold for 'Zionism' and will join any fight for the city- most likely will provoke a fight for it if it can.
6. In fact, al-Qaeda will not be able to recreate anything like its former stronghold in Afghanistan, or even its current stronghold which is effectively an Emirate in parts of Pakistan. In Afghanistan the Pashtun ruled through the vehicle of their own Taliban. Al-Qaeda were guests, allies and financiers to some extent- they need a local Iraqi version of the Taliban and this may be hard to find.
7. This is the only Emirate in the Arab World that has no oil- it is as poor as Afghanistan minus the opium or Jordan minus the foreign aid. Oy vey, as some Arabs might say.

Cheers

    Mohammed