(Our admired hero of yesteryear?)                      (What he hath wrought)

The Mujahideen Shoura Council, consisting of Al-Qaeda and some other Sunni insurgent groups, has announced the establishment of 'The Islamic Emirate in Iraq', to cover parts of northern Iraq as well as the western part which includes Al-anbar province. The new Emir was named as Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, which is clearly a made-up name with strong implications that the man is a Sunni from Baghdad. No doubt he is a Sunni but he could be from anywhere, including Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan. The news and reports about these shadowy groups indicate that some former Iraqi military officers are allied with the Salafis and Ba’athists. A new name that crops up is Abu Osama Al-Iraqi, aka Khalid Othman, reported to be a former high officer of the Saddam-era armed forces. Both public names are clearly made up.

On the other hand, it looks like tribal factors among the Sunnis are playing a strong role in exacerbating the inter-insurgent divisions now. It is not clear if the Coalition efforts have had a role in this shift, or if it is a natural outcome of events, given the strong tribal assabiya, the blind loyalty to the tribe and clan that is powerful and supercedes national identity in most Arab countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in the Gulf region. Some of the dissidents are criticizing the new leader of Al-Qaeda-Iraq for harming the Sunnis in the terrorist operations. Presumably some of the tribes have been angered that their own members are being killed and injured during indiscriminate operations in mixed neighborhoods- things happen when you have suicide bombings.

The announcer of this new Emirate on the web vowed: “We swear by Allah to work and struggle (Jihad) in order to free the captives, lift injustice and tyranny off the Sunna people who are oppressed by the hateful Rawafidhia rejectionists (a term used for the Shi’as, who do not follow the Sunna orthodoxy) and the Crusader occupiers (guess who?).” The announcement condemns the Kurds (agents of Zionism) as well Shi’as (agents of Persian Safawis- a favorite term used by Ba’athists and Salafis for Shi’as). Speaking of which: Aljazeera TV reports the Iraqi government has announced the formation of a joint working team with Iran for ‘security coordination’ between the two countries. Presumably this will involve exchange of intelligence as well as anti-terrorism and border security. The reports did not mention if they will also discuss the militias that plague Iraqi cities or their Iranian links.

A New Gulf War (of Words):
To understand the sectarian emotions that the Iraq War has unleashed in the Arab World, especially in the Persian Gulf region, one needs only to look at some recent political developments:

Fear of a continuation of majority rule in Iraq has already pushed many in the Gulf states toward urging an American-approved coup in Iraq- this is almost an oxymoron, any coup will have to be American-sanctioned. These rumors of a coup have been fed by leading Iraqi Sunni politicians and journalists who have established contacts in the GCC states. While most Americans would consider these rumors as absurd manifestations of certain Middle Eastern or Arab peculiarities, they are taken seriously in the Arab World, especially in the politically pre-adolescent Gulf region. In turn, these rumors feed the terrorist insurgency in Iraq, raising its hopes of a return to power.

King Abdullah of Jordan fired an early shot in this new sectarian conflict by publicly warning of a Shi'a crescent across the Middle East. This was seconded later by President Mubarak of Egypt, when he stumbled into telling Al-arabiya TV (largely Saudi and Gulf audience) that Shia's are more loyal to Iran than to their native countries.

Many of the elites in the Arab world, and especially in the Gulf, now believe that they were better off with Saddam in power in Baghdad. One can sense it from what is written in some of the media- either openly or between the lines. It is not often clearly expressed because most of these states would not want to irritate or embarrass the American protector, the only power that keeps the big bad regional wolves at bay. These feelings and worries are understandable, given the regional uncertainties unleashed in the aftermath of the fall of the Ba'ath, and given the history of Iraq with her neighbors.

In looking through some of the mainstream media outlets of the GCC countries, one would think that a hot Shi'a-Sunni civil war has already started on the shores of the Persian Gulf. This is especially the case with parts of the Saudi and Kuwait media. The website of Alarabiya TV, Saudi-owned but operating from Dubai, last week carried almost daily news reports about the claimed mass conversion of Sunnis in Arab countries to the Shi'a sect. Fundamentalist Salafi deputies in Kuwait have 'accused' the token Shi'a minister in government of distributing pro-Shi'a literature to other cabinet members. Two Kuwait daily rightwing tabloids, al-Watan and al-Siyassah, have hinted at disloyalty among the Gulf Shi'as, as well as reporting that the Mufti of Syria, that country's leading Islamic scholar and arbiter, has been forced to convert to Shi'ism in order to keep his job. Now it is not known how one converts to Shi'ism or Sunnism, since there are no rites for conversion between sects in Islam. It has to do with what one believes and also on how he or she perceives certain old historical events in early Islam.

The oddest, and perhaps most amusing, report appeared in Al-watan (Oct. 15), where a regular daily columnist published an open letter to President Bush (Oct. 15) telling him that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons only because she fears a 'repeat of past U.S. aggression', urging him to leave North Korea alone and attack Iran and Syria. He said these two countries tend to subvert citizens of Gulf countries. They probably do try to recruit agents in the area, perhaps try to win some hearts and minds, although it is hard to see how they can win any given the dismal economic and human rights performance of both regimes. 
A piece of advice is in order here: this in itself may not be considered a casus belli, not by the men and women who will have to do the fighting or their representatives, probably not even by those who will have to give the orders.

The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) will hold a conference in Mecca to discuss peace in Iraq. A representative of Ayatollah Ali Sistani has publicly urged the conference to include an item discouraging the public use of 'sectarian language', especially among preachers at the mosques. Some extremist preachers periodically denounce the Shi'as publicly from the pulpit as heretics and encourage others to fight them- apparently the place to do just that is Iraq.

One positive result of these sectarian tensions, and the Iraq war which has brought them out in the open, is that many domestic 'issues' cannot be swept under the rug anymore. Issues that have been left festering, on the usual Arab assumption that if they are not dealt with then they do not exist, will have to be faced now. Still, these are things that can rock a boat, as they say.

Cheers
Mohammed H. Ghuloum

m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com